Extended Data Fig. 7: Fitness growth model testing year of switch and schematic.

(a) Testing year of fitness switch for the logistic growth -fitness model. Adjusting the year of the fitness switch in the model fitting to vaccine status. The difference to the best WAIC (2009 [PCV7 implementation] & 2011 [PCV13 implementation]) is on the y-axis where the year of fitness switch relative to 2009 & 2011 is on the x-axis. Further we test no fitness switch (ns; yellow) and the impact of including one fitness switch in 2009 (purple). The dark gray box highlights equivalent models (ΔWAIC ≤2) and light gray box highlights similar models (ΔWAIC ≤ 7). (b) Schematic denoting the fitness growth model parameterisation which accounts for the specific timing of the PCV impacting each group of serotypes (NVT in blue; PCV7 in green; PCV13 in red).