Extended Data Fig. 10: Modeled forest response to the 2015 drought and implications of the derived map of Amazon forest biogeography.

a–c, Forest response to the 2015 drought in drought-affected pixels. (a) Observed EVI anomalies (resampled at 0.4 degrees to match model resolution which accounts for spatial autocorrelation (see Supplementary Fig. 1). (b) GAM-predicted EVI anomalies (model of Supplementary Table 1d). (c) Residual EVI anomalies (panel a observations minus panel b predictions). The GAM well-predicts the pattern of response (Panel b), but under-estimates the extremes of the responses (as evident from residuals in panel c continuing to show greening/browning patterns beyond the predictions). (d) Map of Amazon forest biogeography of resilience/vulnerability, overlaid with mean winds (arrows, at height 650 hPa) and location of the arc of deforestation. The most productive as well as the most vulnerable forests (in red) are also those most experiencing deforestation (in the “arc of deforestation”) which is causing local climatic warming/drying⁴, further stressing these vulnerable forests. These “arc of deforestation”/vulnerable forests are often upwind forests¹³⁵ (especially when the Intertropical convergence zone, ITCZ, swings to the south) that are critical for hydrological recycling in the Amazon.