Extended Data Fig. 7: Further analyses of differences in relative success among therapy areas.

A) Probability of success, P(S), by therapy area, with Wilson 95% confidence intervals. The N shown at right indicates the number of launched T-I pairs (numerator) and number of T-I pairs reaching at least phase I (denominator). The center is the exact proportion and error bars are Wilson binomial 95% confidence intervals. B) Probability of genetic support, P(G), by therapy area, with Wilson 95% confidence intervals. The N shown at right indicates the number of genetically supported T-I pairs reaching at least phase I (numerator) and total number of T-I pairs reaching at least phase I (denominator). The center is the exact proportion and error bars are Wilson binomial 95% confidence intervals. C) P(S) vs. P(G), D) RS s. P(S), and E) RS vs. P(G) across therapy areas, with centers indicating point estimates and crosshairs representing 95% confidence intervals on both dimensions — Katz for RS and Wilson for P(G) and P(S). For A-E, total N = 13,022 unique T-I pairs, but because some indications belong to > 1 therapy area, N = 16,900 target-indication-area (T-I-A) triples. For exact N and full contingency tables, see Table S28. F) Re-analysis of RS (x axis) broken down by therapy area using data from supplementary table 6 of Nelson et al.⁵. G) Confusion matrix showing the categorization of unique drug indications into therapy areas in Nelson et al.⁵ versus current. Note that the current categorization is based on each indication’s position in the MeSH ontological tree and one indication can appear in > 1 area, see Methods for details. Marginals along the top edge are the number of drug indications in each current therapy area that were absent from the 2015 dataset. Marginals along the right edge are the number of drug indications in each 2015 therapy area that are absent from the current dataset. See Fig. S8 for the same analyses restricted to drugs with a single known target.

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