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How would the 577 seats of the French National Assembly have been allocated if the first round of voting was the only round and the candidate with most votes in the first round only would have been chosen in each constituency?

The limited news articles I can find only speak of the overall vote share rather than constituency results.

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Disclaimer: First of all I hope this is not a loaded question, in the sense of "I heard the extreme right had a lead in the first round, so how far were they leading and how much is that a stolen election".

As origimbo has pointed out, people were voting with the knowledge that there would be a second round, so taking a leader in 3 way races and pretend that they would have won if you cut there is somewhat disingenuous. The thing is if people would have known there would be only 1 round they would likely have done the tactical voting in round 1 leading to a likely much different outcome.

Though in case you're only interested in the data. Well the French ministry of internal affairs made those data pretty transparent:

https://www.resultats-elections.interieur.gouv.fr/legislatives2024/

click on the region and the subdivision and see the result if you're looking for a particular constituency, but they have also overall data:

https://www.resultats-elections.interieur.gouv.fr/legislatives2024/ensemble_geographique/index.html

and as CDJB mentioned they also have that as json apparently: https://www.data.gouv.fr/fr/datasets/resultats-du-1er-tour-des-elections-legislatives-2024-par-departement-et-circonscription/#/resources

It's in French, but there should be plenty of translator apps to translate the few uncommon words that aren't apparent from the context. Maybe as a start gauche=left, centre = center, droit = right.

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    It's not loaded, as it is clear that people behave differently under different electoral systems. But several commentators have mentioned how the French system lets them walk back support for the Far Right. And I wanted to understand that effect compared to single round FPTP.
    – Jontia
    Commented Jul 9 at 15:08
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    @Jontia It not just lets them walk back their support for the far right, Supporters of other parties could also move their votes. For example in many districts the center or left candidates dropped out of the race to only run 1 democratic candidate against the RN. So a far right plurality among a much more diverse field in round 1 could end up being a minority in a much more narrow field (often duel) of competitors even if the effective vote count didn't change. Though they lost at least some votes as well.
    – haxor789
    Commented Jul 9 at 20:07
  • @Jontia You should note those commentators are wrong. The RN scored about as many votes (10.6M and 10.1M) in both rounds, so it's pretty clear they didn't lose support.
    – AmiralPatate
    Commented Jul 10 at 14:11
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    @AmiralPatate resultats-elections.interieur.gouv.fr/legislatives2024/… they got 9,379,092 votes in the first round and 8,744,080 votes in the second round. So they lost ~7% of the votes in the first round. That's a significant portion, but it's not that they suddenly eroded into oblivion.
    – haxor789
    Commented Jul 10 at 14:16
  • @haxor789 You have to account for the fact there were 6M people without a second round, and overall 4M less people who voted. And they actually scored a slightly higher proportion of votes. (Side note, the 10M figure includes UXD, though the difference between the rounds is still 0.5M)
    – AmiralPatate
    Commented Jul 10 at 14:21
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I think the data in the le Monde article used in Bouncy Chips' answer is slightly off; it seems to be missing 10 seats, and groups some parties together into their alliances. I used a dataset published here, which gives the following results:

Party Seats Seat Percentage
Rassemblement National 259 44.89%
Union de la gauche 155 26.86%
Ensemble! 62 10.75%
Union de l'extrême droite 37 6.41%
Divers droite 18 3.12%
Les Républicains 16 2.77%
Divers gauche 12 2.08%
Régionaliste 9 1.56%
Horizons 3 0.52%
Divers centre 3 0.52%
Ecologistes 1 0.17%
Parti socialiste 1 0.17%
Extrême droite 1 0.17%
Total 577 100%
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  • The groupings are useful though. Given these numbers and the 289 requirement for a majority.
    – Jontia
    Commented Jul 9 at 11:16
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    Well I think it depends on how candidates are labeled, because I get only 2 regionalists in my classification for exemple (which I put in "other"). But I guess your source is more accurate. Even if, in my opinion, it doesn't make much sense to put "Rassemblement National" and "Union de l'extrême droite" (Ciotti's scission I guess ?) apart because they would have sided with the RN. I think it make it much less readable for people not familiar with french political scene.
    – Bouncy Chips
    Commented Jul 9 at 12:50
  • And you were right about the 10 missing seats, I corrected my mistake
    – Bouncy Chips
    Commented Jul 9 at 13:07
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According to this source, if you only take leading candidate for the first round, national assembly composition would look like this:

  • RN (far-right): 298 (51.7%)
  • LR (right): 20 (3.5%)
  • Other right: 8 (1.4%)
  • Ensemble (Macronists): 70 (12.2%)
  • Centrists (Macron's allies): 6 (1.1%)
  • Other Left: 12 (2.1%)
  • NFP (left coalition): 159 (28.7%)
  • Other : 4 (0.7%)

Those are detailed results.

Here is a rough grouping by political nuances:

  • Far-right: 298 (51.7%)
  • Right: 28 (4.8%)
  • Centrists (Macronists): 76 (13.1%)
  • Left coalition: 171 (29.8%)
  • Other : 4 (0.7%)
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