Unlocks

A cornerstone of sustained prosperity is the unlock: unleashing a leap forward with a new approach. Thinking different, if you will. An external shock compels us to leverage existing resources in fresh ways. In these moments, it’s less about new or more than it is about rearranging the materials we have at hand.

Prisons

In the U.S. we fetishize tech billionaires, elite universities, and incarceration. We’ve long been a global outlier, imprisoning far more of our citizens than any other country. The U.S. spends $88.5 billion a year on prisons — more than we spend on the Department of Justice, IRS, EPA, and NASA combined. What do we get for that money? Incarceration increases infant mortality by 40%, and a child with an incarcerated parent is five times more likely to go to prison themselves. The real expense of incarceration in America is closer to $1 trillion a year. And yet nearly two-thirds of federal prisoners are convicted again within two years of release, one of the highest rates in the world. It turns out that the U.S. prison system mirrors many of the “5-star” substance abuse rehabs in my hood (Delray Beach), which should be labeled recidivism centers: They seem to be aiming to create lifelong customers.

The virus may help us kick the habit. The inability to socially distance and poor sanitary conditions meant Covid spread four times faster in prisons than on cruise ships. In response, the U.S. Bureau of Prisons released 36,000-plus inmates to home confinement to reduce the spread — more than 20% of federal prisoners.

States have largely failed to follow suit, but they should. When states significantly reduce their prison populations, crime rates fall faster than the national average. Between 1999 and 2012, New York and New Jersey downsized their prisons by 26% — and violent crime dropped 31% and 30%, respectively. Diversion and rehabilitative support programs reduce recidivism.

Last month, the Justice Department said thousands of inmates released because of the pandemic would be allowed to remain in home confinement — a literal unlocking that could be the catalyst for serious progress. Among other things, it will put more desperately needed men back into lower-income homes.

Feed Me

Siloing in place meant we started getting everything delivered. Grocery aisles have been dispersed to our homes, saving us time and reducing traffic and emissions. And we’re likely just getting started.

Our current food delivery model is inadequate and inefficient. Perishable food transits from holding location to holding location, spoiling on shelves or in our homes and refrigerators. Millions in R&D has been spent on predicting how and when we’ll shop, so bananas will be luteous when we show up to the store. Delivery is greener: A University of Washington study found grocery delivery trucks produce up to 75% less carbon emissions per customer than driving to the store when they’re efficiently routed.

The “dark store” model could increase efficiency further. Here’s a strategy rapid-delivery companies including Jokr, Getir, and Gopuff are leveraging: They’ve decentralized the supermarket across a network of hyperlocal grocery stores, then e-pedal fresh produce to homes within a 1-mile radius in 15 minutes. Reducing the last mile to within a short pedal’s distance (vs. the average 6 to 9 miles with traditional delivery) conserves time and energy, while more groceries are packed into fewer trucks on the back end.

Grocery could also be the foundation for a more robust last-mile delivery infrastructure that could supplant the inefficient package-delivery model we have today, a relic of a time when overnight delivery was a high-margin service, not the price of entry.

Unlocking widespread grocery delivery will do more than save us trips and gasoline. It could improve the diets of the 19 million Americans who live in food deserts (places where the nearest grocery store is more than a mile away). Obesity rates are high in these areas, where fast food restaurants are cheap and ubiquitous. There are roughly 39,000 grocery stores in the U.S. vs. 247,000 fast food restaurants. But there are 300 million smartphones.

Rethinking the grocery supply chain could help address our obesity problem, something we frequently choose to ignore out of fear of cancellation and hurting other people’s feelings. Four in every 10 Americans are obese. For children, it’s 1 in 5. Obesity impairs immune function, increases risk of heart failure, and increases Covid fatality. Thirty percent of Covid hospitalizations are attributed to obesity.

Remote Work

It’s been well covered, but that’s because it’s a big deal. Remote work saves people and businesses time and money. Let’s do the math:

The average commute time in the U.S. is 26 minutes each way. It takes the average American around 20 minutes to get ready for work. Remote work removes that commute (52 mins), and with no suit or hairdryer to worry about likely cuts getting-ready time in half (10 mins): That’s 62 minutes saved per day. The National Bureau of Economic Research estimates the value of time to be 75% of the after-tax mean wage rate. For the typical American knowledge worker, that comes out to $30 per hour, thus saving:

• $155 per week (5 hours 10 minutes)
• $620 per month (20 hours 40 minutes)
• $7,440 per year (10 days 8 hours)

Longer term, this trend will provide greater flexibility in housing, transportation, and workforce composition. There’s little rational basis for knowledge work to be structured like 19th century factory employment, and the remote work unlock will liberate us from that archetype. Many frontline jobs cannot be done remotely. But for those that can, the benefits are real. Remote work has unlocked time that can lead to a healthier and more prosperous life.

What’s Your Unlock?

What’s gotten you here today won’t get you where you need to be tomorrow. The ground beneath us has shifted. But there is opportunity everywhere … for each of us. We can look at the crisis, the changes in our economy and technology, and ask: What is the unlock? For me, it’s simple. In 2014, when my boys were 4 and 7, I spent 211 days on the road. Pre-Covid, the idea of charging someone to do a virtual talk, attend board meetings, or teach a university-level class remotely was nearly unthinkable.

So my unlock is an easy one and (admittedly) a function of privilege: Until they’re out of the house, I’ve decided I won’t spend more than 50 days a year away from my boys. They were born yesterday, and tomorrow they’ll be gone. All my bullshit virtue signalling about being a great dad will be just that — bullshit — unless I log the hours. Note: There’s no such thing as quality time with kids. Just time, as the moments of real engagement are elusive and unexpected.

As we register our losses, can we also find the courage to be more expressive and loving with the people who matter to us? Can we command a better sense of the finite nature of life and forgive ourselves and others for our mistakes? Can we no longer take our liberties for granted, and acknowledge that to enjoy these freedoms without contributing is infantile? Can we demonstrate more grace?

What is your unlock?

Life is so rich,

Scott