Will Dubitsky’s Post

Misinterpreting the EV sales slump, many automakers are delaying and cancelling EVs while advancing PHEVs and hybrids, painting themselves in a corner. GM, Ford, Volkswagen, Mercedes, Toyota, Honda, Mitsubishi are among those doing so. Surveys show the slump is temporary and largely due to concerns about high EV prices and the availability of charging infrastructure. The entry of inexpensive Chinese EVs in North American and European markets are the inflection points such that competition will lower EV median prices.  This will result in EV and ICE price parity. The experience in China illustrates that when this parity occurs, EV sales climb while ICE vehicles drop. Three quarters of those under 40 are considering buying an affordable Chinese EV. The Alliance for American Manufacturing referred to Chinese EVs coming to the U.S as an “extinction level event.” More generally, 45% of those intending to purchase a new vehicle within the next 12 months, are considering an EV.  This jumps to 79% in the 2026 to 2028 period. Concurrently, the charging infrastructure supply will increase to correspond with demand. It just may just be that there was an EV sales speed bump for a host of reasons, because EV sales are expected to grow 20% for 2024 and skyrocket in 2025. The combination of more affordable prices; incrementally longer ranges; surges in EV and battery manufacturing capacity; 95% EV battery recyclability; technological battery advancements from less critical minerals to no critical minerals; and better reliability, together with significant increases in the numbers of charging points, will ultimately contribute to the aforementioned 2024 and 2025 EV sales growth projections.

No one wants to buy used EVs and they’re piling up in weed-infested graveyards So you buy your electric vehicle - how much do they cost ? There are 18 BEV's available in Canada https://lnkd.in/gHnbY-kX Average $68720.43 Median $55469 Avg Tesla $91865 (Note - I took the $270,000 Lotus and $257,000 Tesla out of the averages just to be fair ) According to an article in the Guardian, which is very pro environment, it takes about 60% more energy and resources to make that electric car - some say that is a low estimate - so initially that new EV has a bigger energy debt to pay off than. A 2021 study from Volvo Motors found that the production and manufacturing of its C40 Recharge electric model generates 70% more emissions than its gas vehicle counterpart, the XC40. They University of Michigan / Ford study showed it took 1.5 to 2 years to pay off the extra energy in manufacturing assuming a zero CO2 grid - note most BEV battery manufacturing has a bunch of coal behind it. But hey a few years later assuming you drive a lot - you have reduced your CO2 emissions in the five years you owned your EV. Time for a new one ! Oops - there is a terrible resale market for EV's according to the Fortune article below. Also, in that period of time the Cost of Ownership of an EV has gone up - because the Government ( those guys we trust so much ) have realized that gasoline taxes paid for road maintenance so now they have to tax your electricity use (WHAT !!! a government that finds a way to add a new tax - that is madness - never happen ) You may be better off buying a used Honda civic ( about $18K )- good gas mileage and its environmental cost of manufacture long since paid off. Just a thought (BTW we bought a 2016 Chev Silverado 3/4 Ton as a service truck for the business in 2018 - its resale value now is almost what we bought it for in 2018 ) https://lnkd.in/gvECcNX8

BYD EV sales plummet in Q1 as hybrids surge: … The decline in battery-powered car sales comes amidst a worldwide … general volatility in China’s car market. Although BYD sailed past … models, the former also sells hybrid models, giving it an … whether the growing popularity of hybrids has come at the expense … #car #cars #awesome

Prices for used EVs are dropping dramatically. But is this necessarily a “bad” thing? I’m not so sure. As a used EV owner, I’m admittedly invested in the issue. We’re seeing the average used EV is now 33.7% cheaper than it was a year ago. This is happening across the board from Tesla to Nissan. The price for a used Tesla Model 3, for example, dropped by 30.6% in October compared to a year prior. I believe Tesla, in particular, is lowering prices because the value is in the company’s charging network and brand acceptance. We know that drivers feel most comfortable with a Tesla purchase than any other EV. If prices are reduced, there is more incentive to hop on the band wagon. There’s more here, though. Dealers say they’re overloaded with EVs that are sitting idle on lots. The early adopters made the switch quite some time ago, and many have already even traded in their first model for a newer one — adding more inventory to the used EV space that was once sparse. We’re also seeing reluctance among the second wave of EV drivers, due to concerns about public charging, cost, new technology and — this is a big one — residual value on the vehicle. While the drop in price is cause for concern at the moment, it could also be a boon. Something has to give on the list of concerns for newbies. If the price of a vehicle plummets to a palatable point, I think we’ll see more people make the switch. #usedEVs #EVs #evsales #usedcars #usedcarprices https://lnkd.in/eXgtksPk

The falling demand for Electric Vehicles, within The United States (U.S.), is causing steep reductions in used EV retail prices. This supports my theory that U.S. automakers should have first targeted and introduced low and moderately-priced EVs, instead of the higher-priced vehicles which they did. https://lnkd.in/dT8dy-EE

PHEV Market Remains Hot: What's Next for Power Battery Installations? In the passenger car sub-market, the popularity of PHEV (Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle) models continues unabated. Market data indicates that in January and February of 2024, PHEV model sales reached 459,000 units, a year-over-year increase of 74.9%, surpassing the overall new energy vehicle market's growth rate of 37.5%. Moreover, even in February of this year, affected by the long Spring Festival holiday, PHEV models still showed a robust growth of over 15%. Based on the sales, wholesale, and production data for PHEV models in January and February 2024, with year-over-year increases of 74.9%, 73.1%, and 68.8%, respectively, the market situation of sales outpacing production and wholesale reveals a performance that exceeds the expectations of manufacturers and dealers. Looking back at the PHEV market, in 2023, PHEV models achieved sales of 1.421 million units, with a year-over-year growth rate of 82.5%. Automakers like BYD and Li Auto shone in the market with their impressive sales performance of multiple PHEV models. Models like BYD Qin, Song, and Li Auto’s L7, L8, L9 were among the top in sales rankings. The outstanding performance of the PHEV market also drove the follow-up of upstream battery supporting enterprises, including Li Auto’s battery supplier CATL, Changan Blue Core, Zero Run's battery supplier CENAT, and battery suppliers like Honeycomb Energy for Haval, Mocha, and Lynk & Co, all of which performed well in the market. Previously, GGII analyzed the "comeback" of the PHEV market and the power battery support pattern in "PHEV Market 'Turnaround': What's the Power Battery Support Landscape?" Facing a slowdown in downstream demand, models represented by PHEVs are driving the penetration rate of new energy vehicles, affecting the new market landscape in power battery installation. GGII will analyze from multiple dimensions such as PHEV model support, installation volumes, etc., to decode the market direction of PHEV power batteries in 2024. MORE--> 📖▶️: https://lnkd.in/gRT9xTzb

Hybrids lead EVs in sales growth as drivers seek convenience Hybrid automobiles achieved stronger sales gains than electric vehicles in major markets last year, in a sign of EV growth hitting a slow patch. Sales of hybrids rose 30% in 2023 in 14 countries -- including China, Japan and the U.S. -- to 4.21 million units, MarkLines reports. Electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids lagged with 28% growth to 11.96 million units. Hybrids accounted for 7% of total sales in 2023, up 2 percentage points from 2021. EV drivers who do not have home charging facilities are facing congestion at charging stations, or leaving their cars for extended periods to recharge. For the next couple of years, in the true sense of "Sustainability", my personal view is that hybrids are more "Sustainable", especially in countries or parts of the world where charging power is not from green sources

BYD and its Australian distributors have announced ambitious plans to double the company’s #EVsales in #Australia in 2024, and then double them again in 2025. The plan, revealed by David Smitherman, the new CEO of EVDirect (distributors of #BYD in Australia) at a media drive day this week, suggests the company is aiming for nearly 50,000 EV sales in Australia in 2025, given that it sold around 12,500 EVs in the country in 2023. To put that in a broader context, the Australian EV market leader #Tesla sold 46,116 EVs in Australia in 2023, and is running about 20 per cent ahead of that number so far in 2024. BYD’s sales in 2024 are already more than double they were at the same stage of 2023. Smitherman also stated that they hoped to reach the 100,000 cumulative sales mark by that time. Given total BYD sales to date are around 20,000: if those sales projections are met, 20,000 + 25,000 + 50,000 would get BYD close to that mark by early 2026. To achieve these targets, Smitherman announced plans for BYD to expand their Australian dealer network from the current 35 to over 70 by the end of 2024, as well as boost their marketing budget by 500% in an effort to gain more market awareness of the BYD brand and what it offers. BYD also intend to expand their current three model electric range (the Atto 3 small SUV, Dolphin small hatch and Seal sedan) with up to five new plug-in models each year. These plans also include expanding into as many as possible of Australia’s vehicle market segments. Details of exactly which models will be introduced is not clear, and there are hopes that the company will bring in its first ute, although that is only at the plug in hybrid stage rather than the full electric. Smitherman did say however there would be ‘at least’ two or three new models for 2024, on top of the plug in #hybrid revealed this week. As to whether BYD can pull off these aims remains an open question. However, with much of the Australian public effectively ‘waiting on the sidelines’ for #BEVs to become equivalent in price and specification to their current internal combustion engine (#ICE) vehicles, it would seem that if BYD can keep up the price, specification and segment growth it will continue to gain ground at the the expense of those traditional manufacturers who are avoiding t of the BEV race (such as #Toyota) would at least seem possible.