Portland’s Post

Notes on the Westminster electoral system in the UK. This chart from the FT nicely shows recent general election vote shares and expectations for the upcoming one. Source: https://lnkd.in/eQnT3bBX So - Labour are now polling in UK overall at essentially the same level as Labour under Corbyn in 2017 or Blair in 2001, or the Tories under Major in 1992 or May in 2017. But with radically different projected (though, of course, we'll see...) seat outcomes because of the FPTP system and the split of the vote between the other parties this time (no clear second place). These mathematical possibilities have always been there, and we saw an even more extreme example in Scotland in 2015, where one party won almost all seats it in the Westminster election on just 50% of the vote. Question: Is this just a sign of a system working acceptably, or does it suggest a fragility that should be addressed? Interesting to note that even conservative voters are becoming warmer to the idea of PR (I wonder why...) in addition to the liberal voters who've traditionally tended to favour it - https://lnkd.in/ePBvEKaX Oh and a bonus question: is it conceivable under UK constitutional convention that two of the smaller opposition parties could form a coalition to be recognised as HM's Most Loyal Opposition if that gives them more seats than the second biggest party. Or does the convention expect a full merger? Possibly an issue, for example, if the Lib Dems come second behind Labour and the Conservatives / Reform form an alliance. p.s. If not following UK topics closely, the party colours are red for Labour, blue for Conservative, yellow for Lib Dem and grey for other. The grey has historically mainly been comprised of regional parties, but the spikes in 2015 and now again in 2024 are mainly explained by Nigel Farage's various brands, though there appears likely to be an increased Green vote this time as Labour has moved further right than it was under Corbyn.

After Rishi Sunak fired the starting pistol on a General Election, True North commissioned the first comprehensive Scotland-wide poll of the campaign on the political lay of the land and a range of key issues. We released the first tranche of findings earlier this week, looking at voting intentions among the people of Scotland for Westminster, for Holyrood, on independence and how the public view our political leaders. From the outset in this election campaign, Labour lead the pack among voters in Scotland. 36% of Scots are set to back Labour in a Westminster vote, with the party continuing to extend its lead in Scotland. The SNP could expect to win a 32% share of the vote — six points down on where they stood just two months ago. The survey, conducted by Survation between 23 and 27 May, shows Conservative and Liberal Democrat support largely unchanged at 17% and 9%. On these figures the SNP would suffer considerable losses across central belt Scotland, reduced to a group of just 16 MPs. Labour would return the largest number of MPs from north of the border, with 28 candidates elected. The Conservatives meanwhile are projected to return eight MPs, with the Lib Dems sweeping up the remaining five seats out of a total of 57. While a Scottish Parliament is still two years away, Anas Sarwar will be buoyed by figures showing his party could be on course to become Holyrood’s largest in 2026. While the SNP remains marginally ahead on constituency voting intentions, Labour’s four-point lead on the regional list would give them 48 seats to the SNP’s 42. Labour would, however, remain 17 seats short of a majority in these circumstances. Commenting on the findings, our Managing Partner Fergus Mutch said: “With five long weeks of campaigning ahead, it’s very much Labour’s election to lose. These figures suggest that they are primed to overturn a score of SNP-held seats in central belt Scotland and return the most MPs to Westminster. With momentum on the side of the Labour Party UK-wide, it will require a powerful response from any party seeking to halt this juggernaut. “That said, the difference in vote share between Labour and the SNP remains fairly marginal — and these figures are tighter than suggested by other polls in recent weeks. The SNP will be hoping that with new leadership they can find renewed purpose which can at least stem the predicted losses, if not completely turn the tide.” Read more analysis on our latest opinion poll at our website, linked below 👇 https://lnkd.in/eRaxDfCM

In this week’s issue of Magnified, we take a deep dive into the current attitudes of likely Labour and Conservative voters and ask what implications these attitudes have for the next election. https://lnkd.in/etAP9xak

‘In its 2005 election victory, all the controversies, including the Iraq war, that had built up around the Blair government helped depress Labour’s vote share in 2005 to 35%, the lowest ever for a party winning a parliamentary majority. Labour’s total vote was even worse: 9.5 million, almost three-quarters of a million fewer than under Jeremy Corbyn in 2019, supposedly the most disastrous result in Labour’s modern history. Even Blair’s generally upbeat memoirs describe his mood on the morning after the 2005 election as “deflated”. Given the much more troubled state and society any Starmer government is likely to inherit, for Labour a large vote and majority at the next election are not luxuries – things to feel good and brag about – but political essentials. Whatever he and his shadow ministers say now, a Starmer administration will probably involve intense arguments, both inside the party and between the government and wealthy voters and interest groups, about how to fund public services much better, whether to raise taxes and how to adapt Britain to the climate crisis and a fragmented, unstable world. The party will not emerge from these arguments with all its support intact. Yet a huge Labour vote at the election still feels quite unlikely. Being a party without much media support, or the ancient tribal loyalties enjoyed by the Tories across rural and small-town England, to attract a big vote Labour needs to create a bandwagon, as Blair did in the run-up to his first landslide in 1997, with more and more sections of the electorate enthused at the prospect of Labour government.’ https://lnkd.in/gedErV4R?

The UK has a general election tomorrow. Here is what the betting markets have to say: According to the odds on Betfair as of 3rd July, the overall result is not in doubt: Labour are 99.5% likely to be the biggest party, and 96% likely to be able to form a government on their own. Digging into the details, the size of the victory is expected to be historically large for Labour, while the Conservatives are expected to put in their worst performance in over 100 years. One thing of interest though - Labour are not particularly popular by historical standards. Tony Blair's landslide victories in 1997 and 2001 were driven by the high vote percentages that come from capturing the centre whilst holding the left. Kier Starmer's presumed victory is being driven more by a) the unpopularity of the Conservatives, b) Reform's recent surge splitting the right-wing vote, and c) the recent SNP scandal. Labour is expected to gather the most seats of any party in living memory, but their share of the total vote will probably be unexceptional. The expected results calculated from Betfair odds: Labour - 451 seats, 39% of the vote Conservatives - 97 seats, 22% of the vote Lib Dems - 57 seats, 13% of the vote Reform - 4 seats, 17% of the vote Not too far away from the forecasts from The Economist's poll average and electoral model, which predicts: Labour - 432 seats, 39% of the vote Conservatives - 109 seats, 20% of the vote Lib Dems - 48 seats, 12% of the vote Reform - 2 seats, 17% of the vote There will be an exit poll at 10pm tomorrow as the polling booths closed, and exit polls are usually very close to the final result in the UK. The final real results will start coming out tomorrow around midnight and nearly all will be known by breakfast time on Friday.

Kier Starmer is only the fifth Labour Prime Minister ever elected in the rich history of the British democracy. The British people have generally entrusted the Conservative party as the nation's steward. While Labour basks in the glow of a thumping 170-seat majority, smarter heads in the party – and indeed across the political spectrum – should quickly turn to consider the UK electoral system that delivered it to them. Labour has won two-thirds of the seats on little more than one-third of the votes cast. Voter turn-out was almost 10 percentage points lower than five years ago. Around 20% of those who could have voted chose Labour, whose share of the polling was lower than the party achieved in 2017 while led by unelectable Jeremy Corbyn. The Liberal Democrats increased their number of MPs by almost 10 times as many as in 2019, while their share of the vote remained static. Meanwhile two challenger parties – Reform and the Greens – picked up a combined 20% of all votes cast but will have little more than 1% of MPs between them in the new parliament. This was a single-issue election – get rid of the Conservatives, but it is not a mandate for Keir Starmer and Labour. If Labour is to win the next election, it will need to deliver on its mandate and show it is fit to govern. Labour and the Liberal Democrats will both find that simply not being the Tories will not be enough to maintain their performance in the next general election. The incoming prime minister should immediately propose a review of the UK electoral system. It should be a model that maintains elements of FPTP (first past the post) – so that a large proportion of MPs are directly voted for by the electorate (and can be removed by them) and ensure that constituents still have a representative in the legislature. But it also needs an element of proportional representation so that every voter feels like they have a direct say in who represents them in Westminster. Parties would be able to choose specialists in key areas to represent the party. Given the limited timeframe, smart professionals with a desire to serve could do so with the opportunity to go back to their careers in the future. The political class could be substantially improved, and maybe voters would notice as much. Starmer has a remarkable, and pivotal, opportunity to re-enfranchise the UK electorate and immediately consolidate his right to govern. It's time to "Put Country First". #UK

The election has brought significant changes across the political landscape. Labour has secured a substantial majority, despite a smaller percentage of the vote compared to Corbyn in 2019, indicating voter apathy and a major shift away from the Conservatives. The Liberal Democrats have seen a surge, suggesting they may be regaining public trust. The rise in support for the Reform Party raises questions about a racist undercurrent in the England, coupled with the rise of the far right across Europe this is alarming. In Scotland, the SNP faced notable losses and have been absolutely battered, they need a reset and the Scottish Govt need to rise to the challenge or they’ll be on the buroo in 2026! The Greens have gained some representation, which could influence future policy directions. Hopefully they don’t go the way of their Scottish counterparts. I’m chuffed Corbyn got elected in North Islington. I’ve not been a fan of the way Labour/Starmer have treated him - you may not agree with him - but history has often seen him on the right side of big decisions. As we await the new Labour government's cabinet and their plans for housing and the economy, there's hope for a period of stability and mature governance. The election results show a clear desire for change, and it will be interesting to see how these new dynamics unfold! There will be many people worried by the results.

"The U.K.’s Labour Party won a huge parliamentary majority in the country’s general election, but a quirk of the British electoral system means it did so with just 34% of the total votes cast. Results show that the opposition Labour Party has won 412 parliamentary seats of the total 650, with just two seats yet to be declared. This translates as roughly 63% of the total seats, but Labour has won just 34% of the total 'popular' vote, while the Conservative Party has secured nearly 24% of that number. Meanwhile, smaller parties including the centrist Liberal Democrats, right-wing Reform U.K. and the Greens took nearly 43% of the popular vote but gained just less than 18% of the seats available." https://lnkd.in/gMxXAUxN

Here is my analysis of yesterday’s by-election results in Wellingborough (Northants) and Kingswood (Gloucestershire). Results data in comments.   1 Two seats were contested. Both had Conservative majorities; Labour won both by significant margins. Turnout was down in both seats compared to the 2019 general election. Whilst it is not unusual for by-elections to have lower votes, the most significant figure was the increase in the 'None of the Above' vote...up 89%...meaning that None of the Above should be declared the winner in both seats!   2 In Wellingborough the number of Labour votes was similar to 2019; in Kingsbury the number was down. This is not an overwhelming endorsement of Labour.   3 The Conservative vote collapsed, especially in Wellingborough where some Conservative voters were unhappy with the decision to get rid of sitting MP Peter Bone. As has been widely reported for some time, things don’t look good for the Conservatives.   4 Interestingly, the Liberal Democrat vote also fell sharply, as did the Green vote in Wellingborough (it went up in Kingsbury). The Lib Dem result feels significant.   5 For Reform these were the best results so far, with Ben Habib (one of their better candidates) getting just under 4,000 votes (13%) in Wellingborough. Their Kingsbury candidate got 10% (around 2,500 votes), not bad, but much lower than the UKIP candidate in 2015 (7,100). Whilst these results are OK for Reform it feels that they are still far from the heights reached by UKIP and they may not have found a position which is distinct, defined enough or electable.   6 There were four Independent candidates in Wellingborough; only one got more than 1,000 votes. No Independents stood in Kingsbury.   I will be standing as an Independent Network candidate in the general election in Bexhill and Battle. If these results are repeated in a general election our Conservative MP’s large majority could be at risk. If the Labour candidate fails to gain votes…all I have to do is persuade 15,000 people to vote for me! I will be one of a number of Independents standing. If we can persuade people that we’re a real alternative…there is hope.

General election kicks off in United Kingdom According to a YouGov poll published one day before the vote, the Labor Party led by 61-year-old Keir Starmer, which has held a minority since 2010, may secure its biggest victory in almost 200 years LONDON, July 4/ About 40,000 polling stations have opened in the snap general election in the United Kingdom; they are set to close at 10:00 p.m. local time (9:00 p.m. GMT). As many as 650 seats in the lower house - the House of Commons - are up for grabs. Whichever party wins a majority will get the right to form a government. According to a YouGov poll published one day before the vote, the Labor Party led by 61-year-old Keir Starmer, which has held a minority since 2010, may secure its biggest victory in almost 200 years. The ruling Conservative Party is expected to lose nearly 70% of the seats it currently holds. Many political heavyweights, including 16 out of 26 cabinet members, are expected to be ousted from parliament. The Liberal Democrats party is likely to take third place, while the Scottish National Party risks losing its already tenuous positions. The first exit polls will be published right after polling stations close. The winners are supposed to be announced by Friday morning. If the Labor Party wins the election, King Charles will ask Starmer to form a government, appointing him as prime minister. All the key members of Starmer’s team are already known because in recent years, they were part of the so-called shadow cabinet. #business #finance #financialservices