Neuberger Berman’s Post

The first of the year! Christopher Cogliano, CFA recaps January's market activity and shows the strength of the labor market in the Graph of the Month. Read it on the blog here: https://lnkd.in/erQnXXTN

My colleague Gregory Daco, EY Chief Economist, shares the latest #macroeconomic updates in the September edition of the EY-Parthenon Macroeconomic Insights. Visit the link to read the newsletter and subscribe: https://lnkd.in/etBgHbYY #economicoutlook

The two-day financial summit reveals some key predictions: The Federal Reserve may not raise interest rates. Join the conversation with leading economists about the potential for no rate hikes in our current economy. Discover more insights in our latest blog. #NoRateHikes #FederalReserve #EconomicInsights #FinancialTrends

The two-day financial summit reveals some key predictions: The Federal Reserve may not raise interest rates. Join the conversation with leading economists about the potential for no rate hikes in our current economy. Discover more insights in our latest blog. #NoRateHikes #FederalReserve #EconomicInsights #FinancialTrends

July saw financial markets rally, with investors drawing positivity from economic data, despite some setbacks in year-over-year earnings. The Federal Reserve set rates at 5.25-5.5%. Meanwhile, private credit emerges as a tempting yet complex option, urging investors to tread carefully. Learn more from HCR’s July Market Review: https://ow.ly/ByY050PwZNT #MarketUpdate #FedRateHike #PrivateCredit

The two-day financial summit reveals some key predictions: The Federal Reserve may not raise interest rates. Join the conversation with leading economists about the potential for no rate hikes in our current economy. Discover more insights in our latest blog. #NoRateHikes #FederalReserve #EconomicInsights #FinancialTrends

We had a great event tonight at the Program for Financial Studies at Columbia Business School. Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Corporation, came to talk to our MBA, MS, and PhD students. He covered a very wide range of topics. A brief summary follows (with apologies for anything I inadvertently mischaracterize). * Mark's view is that inflation is coming down in the U.S. and globally, and the inflation spike that was caused by supply disruptions following the COVID shock is fading. * Businesses are not laying off people, meaning that even a mild recession is unlikely because recessions are typically associated with a weakening job market. * The U.S. consumer, a key driver of the global economy, is doing well. There is a lot of excess savings (savings above the pre-COVID savings rates) built up over the COVID lockdown, and the consumer has lots of dry powder to spend. The net result of these three factors suggest the U.S. economy will avoid a recession in this cycle. Some further observations: * It is unlikely we'll see a wage-driven inflation spike because inflation expectations remain well anchored and because much of wage gains take place when people switch jobs, and in the current environment, people are happy at work and not switching employers. * The move higher in rates feels overdone, though a fair level for 10-year nominal yields is around 4%. The fact that the rate move is on the back of real rates, and not inflation break-evens, suggests the market is also sanguine about inflation and bullish on growth. * One of the biggest risks to this view is that the Fed overtightens and causes something to break. A dry run of this happened earlier in 2023 with the mini-banking crisis. As mortgage rates approach 8%, there is an enormous amount of tightening already in the system and an overly hawkish Fed might push the tightening too far. * A lot of lending post the Global Financial Crisis has originated from the shadow banking system, and it isn't clear how resilient these institutions will prove to be in a higher-rate environment. * There is concern about U.S. fiscal policy with our debt/GDP ratio forecasted to rise to 118% in 10 years. Such high debt levels, if combined with rising rates, would make the cost of servicing national debt very punitive. * Finally, Mark felt one of the key global trends for the foreseeable future will be deglobalization. The U.S., a relatively closed economy, will be least impacted, while the rest of the world, and especially heavy exporters like China, will be most adversely affected. I am not doing justice to the entirety of tonight's discussion, which touched on many more points than just these. We all learned a lot, and a big thanks to Mark for taking the time to come up to our new campus and meet with the Columbia Business School community. #economics #macro #growth #inflation #Fed

In our recent webinar, PNC Chief Economist Gus Faucher provided an overview of key macroeconomic factors currently influencing the U.S. economy, and Chief Investment Strategist Marc Dizard shared insight into the bank’s outlook for financial markets. Both experts discussed what this may mean for investors and businesses in the second half of the year.. #pncbank #businessbanking #smallbusinessowners #economicoutlook

The economy matters, but it matters differently to different investors depending on their distinct objectives, timelines, and asset allocation. And it’s not the only thing that matters. Learn more via the CFA Institute blog.

Discussing the profound impact of the #FederalReserve's recent statements on the market's optimism: During his address, Chairman #JeromePowell's comments had a dynamic impact on equities. #IBKR's Senior Economist, José Torres, sheds light on the intricate relationship between #inflation, #employment trends, and changing investor sentiment. Torres offers insights into the future of investment strategies and economic stability.