Ramona Hood

Loving every moment at the TMSA Elevate 2024 conference! 🚀 If you’re in logistics marketing or sales and you’re not here, you’re missing out on game-changing insights and opportunities. Don’t get left behind. #TMSAElevate2024 #LogisticsLeadership #IndustryInnovation

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Headlines about layoffs rightly cause much concern and consternation in the trucking industry (e.g., https://lnkd.in/g9useTDD). However, it is critical to understand that this tells only half the story because a substantial percentage of trucking layoffs occur because a firm loses a key customer account. What that means is that the firm which won the business will often expand (which tends not to be reported). Below I wanted to document just how prevalent such reallocation of jobs is in trucking using population-level data from administrative records for all employer firms in truck transportation via the Business Dynamics Statistics (BDS) program. Data from https://lnkd.in/gVr6BbRW for all carriers. Thoughts: •The chart shows three series. The job creation rate is the jobs added by the subset of carriers that expanded or started operations in year t relative to t-1 divided by the average employment across all carriers in years t and t-1. Analogously, the job destruction rate is defined as the jobs lost due to carriers that downsized or exited in year t relative to t-1 divided by the average employment across all carriers in years t and t-1. The Net Rate of Job Change is the difference between the series and represents the percent change in employment for a given year. Data cover 1978 – 2021, with each data point representing change for that year relative to the prior year (e.g., 1978’s data point compares March 1978 data with March 1977 data). •What I want to emphasize: even when the net rate of job change is relatively low (e.g., 4.3% for March 2019 vs March 2018), this hides that there is a much higher rate of jobs being reallocated across carriers. For example, that 4.3% March 2019 figure hides a 14.9% job creation rate and a 10.6% job destruction rate. •Consequently, what economists call excessive job reallocation in 2019 was 21.2%, which represents the sum of job creation and destruction rates (14.9 + 10.6) less the absolute value of the net change in jobs (4.3), ergo 25.5 – 4.3 = 21.2. That is a lot of reshuffling of jobs across firms. Implication: Trucking jobs are reshuffled across carriers all the time. Focusing only on layoffs misses that firms which win new contracts are likely to expand. #supplychain #supplychainmanagement #freight #trucking #truckload #logistics #transportation

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Many of you know I frequently disagree with FreightWaves regarding their continually revisions to their predictions of when the truckload market will turn, and I also challenge that their tender volume data are representative for all of truckload operations. However, one thing I do agree with them about is that the American Trucking Associations continually claims about a systematic shortage of truck drivers are incorrect. That said, this article from today (https://lnkd.in/gt4fmJep) caught my attention. A few thoughts: •FW's isn't pulling punches in stating "the bill [H.R. 3013] is intended to rectify the shortage of truckload drivers — an oft-repeated myth of the ATA, and one for which the organization’s projections are revised frequently — there is no real urgency behind its advancement. •And no punches pulled with, "Based on its results this Congress, the American Trucking Associations’ lobbying efforts make it look less like a Machiavellian operator, pulling strings in the halls of power, and more like another Washington grifter — a shop that raises a lot of money, pays its staff well and takes congresspeople to dinner, but gets little done." Implication: regarding this story, grabs🍿and waits for the ATA to respond. #supplychain #supplychainmanagement #freight #trucking #truckload #transportation

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It's often said that logistics and supply chain metrics are an excellent leading indicator of what the future holds for our economy. For those of you who's crystal ball may be a bit hazy, the recent FreightWaves article provides some excellent insight. https://lnkd.in/gEyf68Py

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I have long suspected FreightWaves data on truckload tender volumes and accepted loads are strongly weighted towards consumer-centric freight, especially containerized imports. Their most recent market update provides more evidence for my claim. Consider the following: •Accepted tenders have been up ~7% in 2024 from 2023. Do you know what else has been up by a similar amount in 2024 from 2023? Metric tonnage of containerized waterborne imports from Asia, which are up 14.5% year-over-year for 2024 from 2023 on a year-to-date basis. •The article mentions that tender volumes are up 15.8% today than in 2019. As tender rejection rates in 2019 and today are similar, tender volumes and load volumes would result in similar conclusions. I'm very confident that this isn't the case when you look at all of trucking freight (my trucking ton-mile index's most recent readings are within 2% of 2019 levels). However, containerized imports have steadily increased since 2019 and are following the pre-COVID trendline (and are up by roughly the amount FW's is reporting for their trucking volume data). Implication: you need to look closely at different data sources for trucking freight volumes to try and infer what industries receive the most weight. I've long felt Cass is industrial-heavy. FreightWaves appears to be the opposite. My own trucking ton-mile index is heavily slanted towards domestic manufacturing (specifically food, chemicals ex pharma, nonmetallic mineral products, paper, and primary metals) because of the Commodity Flow Survey. Things to keep in mind as you select which indexes to give more weight when undertaking strategic planning (e.g., if you are a carrier with lots of exposure to containerized imports, FreightWaves' data would likely be your preferred metric). #supplychain #supplychainmanagement #shipsandshipping #freight #trucking https://lnkd.in/giQiCCHf

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Recall my post just a few days ago about assessing validity claims concerning data? I was struck by a few statements made in this recent FreightWaves' article I just came across this morning that makes be even more strongly question how representative their tender volume data truly is (https://lnkd.in/g5XV3gts). Consider the following quotes: •"Dallas’ outbound tender volumes (OTVI.DAL) have grown approximately 50% over the past five years compared to the national average of 18%." •"Phoenix demand is up approximately 60% since April 2019." My simple question: over-the-road dry van capacity has increased just 4% over this period based on the BLS's payroll data for NAICS 484121: General Freight Trucking, Long-Distance, Truckload. We know from separate Census Bureau data compiled from IRS tax records and highly reliable surveys that nonemployer firms saw just a 1.5 percentage point increase in their share of revenue (from 18.5% in 2019 to 21% in 2022). As such, capacity hasn't grown more than 4.5% across all of trucking. If freight volumes were truly up 18% over this period, wouldn't we be in an incredibly tight market? Curious is anyone else can make sense of these discrepancies. My answer is simple: FreightWaves' tender volume data aren't capturing all trucking freight, and instead are capturing a nonrepresentative slice of the pie. #supplychain #supplychainmanagement #freight #trucking #transportation #logistics

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Join us today for a great discussion on how to optimize your food & beverage supply chain!

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Several LTL/Last mile players are reporting notable increases in volume and rate. Is it “the” turnaround we’re waiting for in transports?? Also remember, transports are about the ONLY economic sector in a recession.-and that excludes passenger transports .. planes etc are full. Hotels=full Bars and restaurants=full Concert venues/arenas=fuller than full. Just trucking. A leader or a lagger this time?

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Many of you know I’ve long argued that FreightWaves Contract Load Acceptance Volume (CLAV.USA) metric is not a good representation of for-hire truckload freight volumes in the USA. The recent article Craig Fuller published (https://lnkd.in/gpa4CexE) lends support for my concerns. I want to draw attention to this quote: “Contracted load accepted volumes, another SONAR index measuring contracted load demand, tell us that the market has grown since January 2023. As of April 15, 2024, year-over-year contracted volumes are up 9%.” Here are two facts that raise serious validity concerns (in my professional academic opinion) that make me believe CLAV isn’t nationally representative: [1]: It doesn’t align with Q1 public truckload carrier financial results. When you look at the chart provided in the article, CLAV has been up throughout 2024 relative to 2023. Yet, you have carriers like JB Hunt hauling fewer loads (-6.8% YoY for dedicated and -5.2% for truckload) in Q1 2024 than Q1 2023. That decline can’t represent JBH turning down that much contractual business due to low rates from contractual customers. [2]: Other indexes such as Cass Shipments and For-Hire Trucking Ton-Miles aren’t showing strong YoY gains; they are showing the opposite in YoY declines of 2-4%. The trucking ton-mile index is nationally representative because it is constructed from the Commodity Flow Survey and various government data sources. Implication: while I really like FreightWaves’ Outbound Tender Rejection Index (OTRI.USA), which I believe is a good indicator of the current balance of supply and demand in the truckload sector, too many other data points result in me concluding that the underlying tender volume data are not representative of truckload freight demand. For anyone who wants to argue differently, ask yourself this: are you or most of the other carriers/brokers you know seeing 9% year-over-year increases in truckload freight volumes? JBH and Knight-Swift certainly aren’t. #supplychain #supplychainmanagement #freight #trucking #truckload #logistics

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CNBC today published the article linked below stating, "America's freight recession is nearing its end...with retail orders and rates headed higher." There are just a few problems: [1]: The article cites data from Motive showing truck visits to distribution centers of the top 5 retailers are up 30% year-over-year as evidence. While Walmart, Target, Costco, Home Depot, and Amazon are indeed large entities (assuming these are the 5 retailers mentioned), they are a small fraction of the overall freight market. And I highly question this figure's accuracy, as Census Bureau data aren't showing sharp increases in retail sales in these sectors to match. [2]: The article ignores that Cass's shipments data for June showed a steep slide to the worst reading in 4 years. Cass shipments is directionally very predictive of freight market dynamics. [3]: The article states, "Data across the retail sector shows year-over-year order increases through June, including at department stores, electronics, and apparel retailers with bricks-and-mortar locations (32.9%), home improvement (24.4%), grocery & superstores (22.1%), and discount retailers & wholesalers (13%)." These numbers can't be accurate nationally, as we aren't seeing increases in real sales or real inventories even close to these totals for these industries based on Census Bureau data. Implication: retail trade is NOT the primary driver of domestic trucking activity. Rather, its domestic manufacturing, and domestic manufacturing output continues to be weak. We are finally seeing signs that seasonally adjusted manufacturing output found a bottom in several industries in late Q1/early Q2 2024, but we still have a way to go before this freight recession ends for trucking firms. #supplychain #supplychainmanagement #shipsandshipping #trucking #freight https://lnkd.in/gAUpaa-Q

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The New York Times report aligns with what we’ve already been observing at Leverage AI: our customers are shifting their purchasing strategies to account for observed and forecasted shipment timeline delays. While the article covers the direct impacts on the transportation and logistics industry, I’ve found you often have to go upstream to de-risk the issue. There is a looming double bullwhip effect on the horizon, and we have been sprinting to further enable our customers with actionable insights and risk mitigation levers to maintain their positions as industry leaders.

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In a recent Q&A, Jim Saponaro, President of Life Sciences & Healthcare at DHL Supply Chain, shed light on the evolving role of third-party logistics (3PL) in the pharmaceutical and healthcare sectors. He highlighted the growing trend towards nearshoring and increased U.S. warehousing demand, as manufacturers prioritize inventory proximity to patient populations, fueling significant growth in multi-client facilities. In the next decade, manufacturers partnering with top-tier contract warehouse 3PL providers will navigate complex supply chains more efficiently, unlocking capital, increasing scalability, and securing a competitive advantage. For more information or to explore how we can strengthen your supply chain operations, please feel free to reach out! For the full conversation with Jim Saponaro, visit the Pharmaceutical Commerce article here: https://okt.to/8Tsnko #DHL #SupplyChain #3PL #LifeSciences #Healthcare

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🔥 Hot off the press 📰 Check out the 1st 50 speakers at Manifest: The Future of Supply Chain & Logistics 2025. This is a lineup you will not want to miss. If you are not already registered make sure to reach out! #manifestvegas #manifest2025 #supplychain #logistics #transportation #procurement #ESG

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𝐖𝐡𝐚𝐭’𝐬 𝐮𝐩 𝐰𝐢𝐭𝐡 𝐝𝐫𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐫 𝐩𝐚𝐲? 𝐋𝐞𝐭’𝐬 𝐭𝐚𝐤𝐞 𝐚 𝐥𝐨𝐨𝐤 𝐚𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐮𝐫𝐯𝐞𝐲 𝐝𝐚𝐭𝐚 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐟𝐢𝐫𝐬𝐭 𝐟𝐢𝐯𝐞 𝐦𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐡𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟒 👇   In the current market, for-hire fleets continue to be cautious with pay increases, and year-over-year comparisons show that changes in professional driver wages remain minimal.   This is now the longest ongoing freight recession that hasn't coincided with an economic recession, and many fleets remain in a holding pattern with pay until supply and demand dynamics change.   My team and I have been hard at work examining the latest data from The National Transportation Institute's National Survey of Driver Wages. Here are three trends we’ve identified in the survey data and dive into in the NTI blog this week:    ➡️ NTI data shows marginal per-mile pay increases from the same time a year ago for drivers across experience levels.   ➡️ Likewise, while there is still movement in the common per-mile pay ranges for drivers, these changes have slowed and in some cases stalled.   ➡️ Despite the subdued pay gains and challenging market conditions, however, indicators of recruiting activity have remained stable from a year ago, and sign-on and referral bonuses remain at or above where they were throughout the 2021-2022 driver hiring boom.   Looking to dive deeper into driver pay trends and compare your fleet’s compensation package against specific competitors and the industry as a whole? Subscribing to NTI’s National Survey of Driver Wages gives you the power to do just that. 🔗 Contact our team today to learn more: https://bit.ly/3QQ2scR

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