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. 2020 Sep 11;11(1):4570.
doi: 10.1038/s41467-020-18402-y.

Assessment of lithium criticality in the global energy transition and addressing policy gaps in transportation

Peter Greim  1 , A A Solomon  2 , Christian Breyer  3
Affiliations

Assessment of lithium criticality in the global energy transition and addressing policy gaps in transportation

Peter Greim et al. Nat Commun. .

Abstract

The forthcoming global energy transition requires a shift to new and renewable technologies, which increase the demand for related materials. This study investigates the long-term availability of lithium (Li) in the event of significant demand growth of rechargeable lithium-ion batteries for supplying the power and transport sectors with very-high shares of renewable energy. A comprehensive assessment that uses 18 scenarios, created by combining 8 demand related variations with 4 supply conditions, were performed. Here this study shows that Li is critical to achieve a sustainable energy transition. The achievement of a balanced Li supply and demand throughout this century depends on the presence of well-established recycling systems, achievement of vehicle-to-grid integration, and realisation of transportation services with lower Li intensity. As a result, it is very important to achieve a concerted global effort to enforce a mix of policy goals identified in this study.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no competing interests.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1. Cumulative availability curve of global Li resources.
The availability curves of this study’s medium (yellow line) and high resource values (green line) are plotted. Both reveal four major plateaus. Beginning with cost leading Salar de Atacama, South America’s second major brine, Salar de Uyuni, accounts for the next horizontal line. The majority of mineral deposits follow at some distance. The date at which society must switch to these more expensive deposits depends on the amount of available resources. This equally applies to the shaping leap to ocean resources, the height of which, in turn, depends on the extraction costs of Li from seawater. Current estimates suggest different values framing a range of 3, −30 times the usual costs of pegmatites and brines (Supplementary Table 6). The red coloured area marks the expected short-term price range for industrial grade lithium carbonate. Nearly all conventional deposits are below. As a consequence, the values for presumed medium and high resource assumptions are economically justified. Note that the extraction cost estimate on y-axis is per lithium bicarbonate equivalent (LCE).
Fig. 2
Fig. 2. Scenario table.
Listing and description of this study’s supply and demand scenarios. In total, there are 18 pairs that consist of one demand element and one comparative supply element each. Two Best Policy Scenarios (1., 2.) are the groundwork for 16 subsequent deviations, which cover the five most important influencing factors (supply, EV uptake policy, recycling, V2G and battery lifetime). The high supply uncertainty requires two base supply scenarios. The legend describes the individual components of this modular system.
Fig. 3
Fig. 3. Annual comparison of Li production and fresh demand.
Annual Lithium supply and demand balance. The annual surplus or deficit of lithium for a scenarios involving medium production; b scenarios involving high production; c various production scenarios under the BPS 3b LDV demand scenario.
Fig. 4
Fig. 4. Availability of lithium in the year 2100.
The comparison of resources and demand represented by cumulative drain plus Li in stock is shown in 18 scenarios of surplus and deficit, respectively. Above each column, the year of depletion is indicated by case.
Fig. 5
Fig. 5. Lithium flow until the year 2100.
The material flow analysis visualises the sectoral interaction of the integrated demand projection model. The total figures of the base case demand are used in this case. Accordingly, 68.03 Mt of inflowing fresh Li splits into four streams supplying—together with backflowing recycled material—the demand of the considered fields of application. The gross demand of BEVs is quantitatively standing out. A strong flow of second-life material is used in the stationary sector, reducing its net demand to 2.28 Mt Li. Except for the material currently used in the year 2100 stock, a strong recycling loop maintains the lion’s share of Li in the system. Only 16.74 Mt of Li flows out through industrial applications that are not recycled at all and losses within the recycling process.
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