Joi Ito's Web

Joi Ito's conversation with the living web.

My sister blogs a great view of the US occupation of Japan from the perspective of how it affected our family. Very relevant to the current situation in Iraq.

The Christian Science Monitor recently published an article focusing on independent labels and musicians. While recording industry album sales were down 11% overall in 2002, some independent outfits saw sales increases of 50 to 100 percent, all while eschewing mainstream radio play.

posted by Matt Haughey

Tim O'Reilly fowards a rant about how the RIAA unfairly blames P2P as the reason for their drop in sales and how their statistics show otherwise.

IP
From: Tim O'Reilly

Date: Sun, 13 Apr 2003 18:13:44 -0700

To: David Farber

Subject: FW: The Music Piracy Myth

Dave, I thought your readers might enjoy the following rant from George Ziemann, who's been doing analysis of the RIAA members' own statistics to argue that the decline in sales is related to their reduced title output and higher prices, not to file sharing.

For the articles to which he refers, see
http://www.azoz.com/music/features/0008.html and http://yahoo.businessweek.com/technology/content/feb2003/tc20030213_9095_tc078.htm

From: George Ziemann
Date: Sat, 12 Apr 2003 22:47:19 -0700
Subject: The Music Piracy Myth

Currently, if you do a google search on RIAA statistics, I'm number one and two; you are three and four, and your article refers to me, so I know you know who I am.

The article to which you referred was published in December. Since that time, a lot has happened, as I'm sure you are aware, not the least of which being the RIAA's recent lawsuits against college students.

First of all, I am a musician. The only reason I even started researching what the RIAA has to say is because of the problems I had selling my own work at eBay, which were entirely due to RIAA accusations of copyright infringement (it was my own CD).

After looking at the 2002 RIAA data, I also realized that over the last 5 years, the recording industry has shipped out more than 2 billion physical units of product, adding up to a retail value of more than $20 billion. You'd think that they would embrace a free marketing and promotion opportunity like mp3s. Let's face it, an mp3 is an inferior copy. I consider mp3s to be an ad for my actual recording.

My current consternation comes in the form of a letter from my congressional representative, who states that "In 2001, record sales were down 10 percent because of unauthorized music downloads..."

Yes, sales were down. Other than that obvious fact, there is no empirical data to suggest that downloading is the cause of the problem. I've asked the RIAA. In fact, I would go so far as to say I have relentlessly taunted them in hopes of a reasonable explanation. They offer none.

So think about this. As the original research I conducted indicates (and has been verified by SoundScan via BusinessWeek.com), the record labels began to reduce the number of releases BEFORE the Napster hearings. When they went in front of Congress to complain about downloading, Hilary Rosen could confidently state that sales were going to suffer.

Because it was engineered.

Here's another interesting point. I can go to www.discmakers.com and order CDs for $1.89 each. Not "replicated" but created from a glass master. As I understand it, the current wholesale price for a CD is about $12.

So how can EMI's Cost of Goods Sold (2001 -- at Hoovers Online) be 71% of their income? BMG's 2001 annual report blames industry shortcomings "long obscured by market success" and Vivendi told its stockholders that an "anticipated lighter release schedule" had something to do with it. BMG is the only one that even mentions file sharing -- as a justification in investing in Napster.

Why does "sales are down 10%" overrule any other explanation for declining sales? A bigger question is -- Why won't anyone in the media even discuss this?

Recently I spoke to the FCC at a public hearing in Tempe (Phoenix area). Next month, I'm going to speak at the DMCA hearings at UCLA Law School.

Additionally, I'm hearing from college kids all over (Duke, Auburn, UCSD, Univ. of North Carolina, Yale Law School, Univ. of Wyoming). They're reading my site and they're using it as background for dissertations and reports. They ask questions. They do not accept vague answers.

Why does the government accept the "sales are down" without any consideration of other, equally plausible explanations? And why does the press?

When the majority of the public is guilty by default, then something is terribly wrong. I'm not sure why I'm even writing to you, except that you seem to be about the fifth person in the country that has applied some logic to this issue.

I've written to every member of the Senate Judiciary Committee, Commerce Committee and Small Business Committee. I've written to Jay Berman, Hilary Rosen and the Recording Artists Coalition. With the lone exception of Janis Ian, absolutely everyone has totally ignored me.

What can we do?

I first started using a Wiki in the Emergent Democracy Happening because the SocialText folks used a Wiki to organize the information. I had visited Wiki's before and knew about them, but the ED Happening was the first time I had really used one. Then I saw Robert Kaye using a Wiki to take notes and he said he was addicted. Robert runs MoinMoin Wiki on his PowerBook. I figured that running the same Wiki software as Robert would be a good place to start. I got it running on my PowerBook, decided that I wanted one in a public place too, so I put one on my XServe box. I've been surfing around WikiSpace today trying to understand all of the interesting things like InterWiki links and stuff.

So, my plan is to take notes locally on my PowerBook and paste publishable stuff onto my public Wiki. Using the same software lets me keep the punctuation which seems to be different between Wiki's.

So my question to all of you Wiki gurus is this. Is there any way to get OPML into a Wiki easily? I've been taking notes in NoteTaker which exports to OPML. My blogroll and just about every outline I have is in OPML. I would LOVE to be able to import this into my Wiki...

My old buddy Tomo from Jr. High (we used to throw parties together in Jr. High) runs a bar in Harajuku called Moda. I haven't DJ'ed for awhile, but I've decided to try messing around a bit. I'm going to be DJ'ing from 8pm until around 10pm this coming Wednesday so drop by if you want to hang out and see me try to DJ. There's no cover charge. He has a web page.

New York Times
Globetrotting Traveler Infected With SARS [...] Airlines have been saying that the filters aboard modern planes do a good job of removing viruses from the air. But according to the health department here, at least 13 people have fallen sick with SARS after they shared a flight from Hong Kong to Beijing last month with an elderly man who had become infected with the disease while visiting his brother in a hospital here.
ABC News
SARS could be biological weapon: experts

Russian infectious disease experts say Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) may be a man-made biological weapon.
[...]
The virus, according to Academy of Medicine member Sergei Kolesnikov, is a cocktail of mumps and measles, whose mix could never appear in nature. "We can only get that in a laboratory," he told a conference in the Siberian city of Irkutsk, quoted by RIA Novosti news agency. It may have spread because of an "accidental leak" from a lab, he said.

Via Ben Hammersley

Reid and I were talking about humility and how most truly confident and capable people are usually pretty humble. We talked about how even a few self-defacing comments can go a long way and making you look pretty smart. So here's the paradox. When you know that I know this and I say something self-defacingself-effacing, it can look stupid if it is intentional and not sincerely. So how do you know when someone is sincerely humble, or just acting humble. Or does it even matter? I guess acting humble insincerely is still better than being arrogant and having to prove yourself at someone's expense. Being humble naturally is probably the coolest, but it isn't just a matter of trying. Kind of like trying REALLY hard to meditate doesn't help you meditate. ;-)

So, Friendster testimonials. Friendster is yet another site that is a networking site, which if it didn't ask you whether you had an open marriage when you signed up, wouldn't seem so much like a dating site. Anyway, Friendster has a feature which allows you to write testimonials about each other. I have received two. Frank and Liz wrote REALLY nice things about me. I assume they are sincere since they are sincere people. I am going to write something nice about them back since I like them both A LOT. But... what if someone writes something nice about me even though they don't really mean it. I will feel guilted into possibly writing something nice about them back. If I don't I look like a jerk. If I do, I could look like fake.

I think that as we design tools for social networking, some of these nuances are going to become important. Different circles have different cultures. Some people thrive on ego and put-downs. Some people thrive on humility. How does this affect the design of the tools...

Took Reid to go see Jay Dvivedi, the Chief Information Officer of Shinsei Bank yesterday. Reid is one of the coolest entrepreneurs that I know and as the former COO of Paypal, also one of the few people I know who gets off talking about payment systems with me. Jay is the smartest CIO I know and is ALWAY extremely inspiring when I see him. When I first met him he was talking about how he was going to revolutionize Shinsei Bank (the Long Term Credit Bank after it was acquired by Ripplewood.) Three years later, he has done everything he promised to do and has built maybe the most technically advanced bank in the world and the only major bank in Japan that is full IP and open systems. We got a tour of his the facility and it was amazing. EVERYTHING was IP: video, phones, everything. He uses public Internet to connect a worldwide network of vendors and nodes in a seamless network that TOTALLY works. Shinsei Bank is living proof of the end-to-end principle. He is now beginning to consult for other companies selling what he has developed at Shinsei Bank. Jay's boss, Mr. Yashiro who used to run Citibank in Japan where Jay used to work is also an amazing model CEO. During our sessions at the Association of Corporate Executives committee on IT Governance that I co-chair, I talked about Yashiro-san and Jay and their relationship quite a bit as a model. If only Japanese CEO's knew as much about the importance of IT as Yashiro-san and if only there were CIO's like Jay, we could be doing so much better in Japan. In addition to GDP, we would have profits. ;-) Three years ago, when Jun and I toured the banks and met the bank heads, Yashiro-san was the only person who bragged about home much money IT was saving him, instead of how much money he was spending on IT...
Adriaan just finished the new release of Kung-Log, the MT client for OS X. He's implemented the thumbnailing feature I asked for and it is now perfect. I can do ALL of my primary blogging from Kung-Log. One thing that is not documented but very useful is the proportionalization of the thumbnail. Enter either the width or the height and tab or click the other box to have it calculate the proportional size for the other field. It's talking the MetaWeblog API so it works for other CMS/blog systems as well, but well tuned for MT