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| Open AccessGlobal prediction of extreme floods in ungauged watersheds
Artificial intelligence-based forecasting improves the reliability of predicting extreme flood events in ungauged watersheds, with predictions at five days lead time that are as good as current systems are for same-day predictions.
- Grey Nearing
- , Deborah Cohen
- & Yossi Matias
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Article
| Open AccessDisappearing cities on US coasts
High-resolution vertical land motion and elevation datasets combined with projections of sea-level rise of 32 major US coastal cities shows that a considerable amount of land area, population, and properties are threatened by relative sea-level rise by 2050.
- Leonard O. Ohenhen
- , Manoochehr Shirzaei
- & Robert J. Nicholls
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Global evidence of rapid urban growth in flood zones since 1985
Analysis of high-resolution annual data shows that global human settlements have expanded continuously and rapidly into flood zones, with those in the most hazardous zones increasing by 122% from 1985 to 2015.
- Jun Rentschler
- , Paolo Avner
- & Stéphane Hallegatte
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Article
| Open AccessSeasonal advance of intense tropical cyclones in a warming climate
We identify a seasonal advance of intense tropical cyclones that is closely related to the seasonal advance of rapid intensification events, favoured by the observed earlier onset of favourable oceanic conditions.
- Kaiyue Shan
- , Yanluan Lin
- & Fengfei Song
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Article
| Open AccessThe global wildland–urban interface
A global assessment shows that the wildland–urban interface occurs on all continents, showing its broad-scale patterns and providing a basis for future research on dynamics and socioeconomic and biophysical processes.
- Franz Schug
- , Avi Bar-Massada
- & Volker C. Radeloff
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Medieval demise of a Himalayan giant summit induced by mega-landslide
Observations and samples from the central Himalayas show that a giant rockslide occurring around 1190 ad in the Annapurna massif led to the collapse of an elevated palaeo-summit, illustrating the episodic mode of erosion of the glaciated high relief by mega-rockslides.
- Jérôme Lavé
- , Cyrielle Guérin
- & Valier Galy
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Article
| Open AccessLess extreme and earlier outbursts of ice-dammed lakes since 1900
An assessment of ice-dam failures in six mountain regions shows that extreme peak flows and volumes have declined sharply since 1900, and that ice-dam floods today originate at higher elevations and earlier in the year.
- Georg Veh
- , Natalie Lützow
- & Oliver Korup
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Grain shape effects in bed load sediment transport
Theoretical and experimental analysis of the effect of grain shape in bed load sediment transport is performed and a shape-corrected sediment transport law that provides greater accuracy in predictions is proposed.
- Eric Deal
- , Jeremy G. Venditti
- & J. Taylor Perron
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Article
| Open AccessGlobal hotspots of salt marsh change and carbon emissions
Analysis of Landsat imagery from the past two decades allows quantification of the changes in salt marsh ecosystems, as well as associated carbon emissions resulting from net global losses.
- Anthony D. Campbell
- , Lola Fatoyinbo
- & David Lagomasino
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Ocean currents show global intensification of weak tropical cyclones
Both drifter current observations and satellite-based tropical cyclone (TC)-induced sea surface cooling demonstrate that weak TCs have intensified in recent decades.
- Guihua Wang
- , Lingwei Wu
- & Shang-Ping Xie
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Article
| Open AccessDeformation and seismicity decline before the 2021 Fagradalsfjall eruption
As observed for the 2021 Fagradalsfjall eruption in Iceland, a release of tectonic stress followed by a decline in deformation and seismicity rate may be a characteristic precursory activity for a certain class of eruptions.
- Freysteinn Sigmundsson
- , Michelle Parks
- & Thorbjörg Ágústsdóttir
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Article
| Open AccessPrecursor-free eruption triggered by edifice rupture at Nyiragongo volcano
The 2021 eruption of Mount Nyiragongo, DR Congo demonstrated that magma storage close to the surface in open systems means that eruptions may occur with very short-term precursory activity, raising major challenges for their monitoring.
- D. Smittarello
- , B. Smets
- & A. Syavulisembo Muhindo
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Diverse tsunamigenesis triggered by the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai eruption
January 2022 saw the first observations of a tsunami resulting from a large emergent volcanic eruption (Hunga Tonga) captured using modern instrumentation, with broad implications for hazard management in similar geophysical settings.
- Patrick Lynett
- , Maile McCann
- & Gizem Ezgi Cinar
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Article
| Open AccessThe challenge of unprecedented floods and droughts in risk management
Unprecedented floods and droughts bring new challenges for risk reduction, as is clear from this analysis of the drivers of changing impacts in many cases worldwide, with implications for efficient governance and investment in integrated management.
- Heidi Kreibich
- , Anne F. Van Loon
- & Giuliano Di Baldassarre
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| Open AccessSurface-to-space atmospheric waves from Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha’apai eruption
The Hunga Tonga eruption represents a natural experiment, being a clearly identifiable near-point source producing gravity waves across a broad range of spatiotemporal and frequency scales, observed by a diverse array of instruments worldwide.
- Corwin J. Wright
- , Neil P. Hindley
- & Jia Yue
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Matters Arising |
Landfalling hurricane track modes and decay
- Kelvin T. F. Chan
- , Kailin Zhang
- & Johnny C. L. Chan
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Article
| Open AccessGlobal Tonga tsunami explained by a fast-moving atmospheric source
By analysing sea-level, atmospheric and satellite data captured after eruption of the Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha’apai volcano, as well as numerical and analytical models, it is shown that global tsunamis can be triggered by acoustic-gravity waves.
- R. Omira
- , R. S. Ramalho
- & M. A. Baptista
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| Open AccessInstantaneous tracking of earthquake growth with elastogravity signals
A deep learning model trained on prompt elastogravity signal (PEGS) recorded by seismometers in Japan predicts in real time the final magnitude of large earthquakes faster than methods based on elastic waves.
- Andrea Licciardi
- , Quentin Bletery
- & Kévin Juhel
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| Open AccessGlobal seasonal forecasts of marine heatwaves
Climate forecast systems are used to develop and evaluate global predictions of marine heatwaves (MHWs), highlighting the feasibility of predicting MHWs and providing a foundation for operational MHW forecasts to support climate adaptation and resilience.
- Michael G. Jacox
- , Michael A. Alexander
- & Desiree Tommasi
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Trends in Europe storm surge extremes match the rate of sea-level rise
Analysis of tide gauge observations shows that, in contrast to the current assumption of stationary storm surge extremes in Europe, the surge contribution to changes in extreme sea levels since 1960 is similar to that of sea-level rise, influencing future coastal planning.
- Francisco M. Calafat
- , Thomas Wahl
- & Sarah N. Sparrow
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Matters Arising |
Reply to: Rainfall an unlikely factor in Kīlauea’s 2018 rift eruption
- Jamie I. Farquharson
- & Falk Amelung
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Matters Arising |
Rainfall an unlikely factor in Kīlauea’s 2018 rift eruption
- Michael P. Poland
- , Shaul Hurwitz
- & Christina A. Neal
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Vast CO2 release from Australian fires in 2019–2020 constrained by satellite
The amount of carbon dioxide released by the Australian wildfires of 2019–2020 is uncertain, but is estimated here using satellite observations of carbon monoxide to be more than twice the amount suggested by fire inventories.
- Ivar R. van der Velde
- , Guido R. van der Werf
- & Ilse Aben
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Satellite imaging reveals increased proportion of population exposed to floods
Satellite imagery for the period 2000–2018 reveals that population growth was greater in flood-prone regions than elsewhere, thus exposing a greater proportion of the population to floods.
- B. Tellman
- , J. A. Sullivan
- & D. A. Slayback
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A process-based approach to understanding and managing triggered seismicity
A multidisciplinary method for managing triggered seismicity is developed using detailed subsurface information to calibrate geomechanical and earthquake source physics models, and is applied to the Val d’Agri oil field in seismically active southern Italy.
- Bradford H. Hager
- , James Dieterich
- & Andreas Plesch
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Ridgecrest aftershocks at Coso suppressed by thermal destressing
Thirty years of geothermal heat production at Coso in California depleted shear stresses within the geothermal reservoir, which changed its faulting style and inhibited aftershocks from the 2019 Ridgecrest earthquake.
- Kyungjae Im
- , Jean-Philippe Avouac
- & Derek Elsworth
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Overwintering fires in boreal forests
Large forest fires in Alaska and the Northwest Territories can ‘overwinter’ and then reignite in the following fire season, contributing up to one-third of the burned area in individual years.
- Rebecca C. Scholten
- , Randi Jandt
- & Sander Veraverbeke
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Earthquakes indicated magma viscosity during Kīlauea’s 2018 eruption
Rotated fault-plane solutions in earthquake swarms at volcanoes could provide an early indication of relatively viscous magma, and hence of the style and hazard potential of an impending eruption.
- D. C. Roman
- , A. Soldati
- & B. R. Shiro
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Propagation of large earthquakes as self-healing pulses or mild cracks
Numerical simulations indicate that seismological observations of large megathrust earthquakes are better matched by crack-like ruptures on persistently weak faults than by self-healing pulse-like ruptures on stronger faults.
- Valère Lambert
- , Nadia Lapusta
- & Stephen Perry
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Observation of the onset of a blue jet into the stratosphere
Observations from the International Space Station show a blue jet that is initiated by an intense blue flash in the top of a thunderstorm cloud.
- Torsten Neubert
- , Olivier Chanrion
- & Victor Reglero
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Thermal displacement by marine heatwaves
Ocean heatwaves displace surface isotherms by tens to thousands of kilometres—comparable to shifts associated with long-term warming trends—potentially driving rapid redistributions of marine species.
- Michael G. Jacox
- , Michael A. Alexander
- & James D. Scott
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Current European flood-rich period exceptional compared with past 500 years
Analysis of thousands of historical documents recording floods in Europe shows that flooding characteristics in recent decades are unlike those of previous centuries.
- Günter Blöschl
- , Andrea Kiss
- & Oliver Wetter
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Months-long thousand-kilometre-scale wobbling before great subduction earthquakes
Observed reversals in GNSS surface motions suggests greatly enhanced slab pull in the months preceding the great subduction earthquakes in Maule (Chile, 2010) and Tohoku-oki (Japan, 2011) of moment magnitudes 8.8 and 9.0.
- Jonathan R. Bedford
- , Marcos Moreno
- & Michael Bevis
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Importance and vulnerability of the world’s water towers
The worldwide distribution and water supply of water towers (snowy or glacierized mountain ranges) is indexed, showing that the most important water towers are also the most vulnerable to socio-economic and climate-change stresses, with huge potential negative impacts on populations downstream.
- W. W. Immerzeel
- , A. F. Lutz
- & J. E. M. Baillie
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Upper-plate rigidity determines depth-varying rupture behaviour of megathrust earthquakes
Models compiled from subduction zones worldwide show that the elastic properties of the rock overlying shallow subduction megathrusts can be used to estimate potential slip, possibly enabling early tsunami warnings.
- Valentí Sallarès
- & César R. Ranero
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Real-time discrimination of earthquake foreshocks and aftershocks
Changes in the average size distribution of earthquakes are used to discriminate between foreshocks and aftershocks, and a traffic light classification is proposed for the real-time assessment of the probability of a subsequent larger event.
- Laura Gulia
- & Stefan Wiemer
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Matters Arising |
Reply to: One neuron versus deep learning in aftershock prediction
- Brendan J. Meade
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Matters Arising |
One neuron versus deep learning in aftershock prediction
- Arnaud Mignan
- & Marco Broccardo
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Letter |
Frequent observations of identical onsets of large and small earthquakes
Analysis of a dataset of high-sensitivity Tohoku–Hokkaido seismograph records shows that pairs of subduction-type earthquakes of different sizes have very similar initial characteristics, implying that the final size of an earthquake cannot be reliably predicted from these.
- Satoshi Ide
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Letter |
Changing climate both increases and decreases European river floods
Analysis of a comprehensive European flood dataset reveals regional changes in river flood discharges in the past five decades that are consistent with models suggesting that climate-driven changes are already happening.
- Günter Blöschl
- , Julia Hall
- & Nenad Živković
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Asia’s shrinking glaciers protect large populations from drought stress
Glaciers in the high mountains of Asia provide a uniquely drought-resilient source of water, supplying summer meltwater sufficient for the basic needs of around 200 million people.
- Hamish D. Pritchard
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Letter |
Needle-like structures discovered on positively charged lightning branches
Radio interferometric observations of lightning over the Netherlands reveal small needle-shaped plasma structures associated with the positive leader channels, explaining why cloud-to-ground lightning connects to the ground multiple times.
- B. M. Hare
- , O. Scholten
- & P. Zucca
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Deep learning of aftershock patterns following large earthquakes
Neural networks trained on data from about 130,000 aftershocks from around 100 large earthquakes improve predictions of the spatial distribution of aftershocks and suggest physical quantities that may control earthquake triggering.
- Phoebe M. R. DeVries
- , Fernanda Viégas
- & Brendan J. Meade
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Letter |
Hurricane-induced selection on the morphology of an island lizard
Two populations of Anolis lizards that survived Hurricanes Irma and Maria had larger toepads, longer forelimbs and shorter hindlimbs relative to the pre-hurricane populations, which suggests hurricane-induced natural selection.
- Colin M. Donihue
- , Anthony Herrel
- & Jonathan B. Losos
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Letter |
A global slowdown of tropical-cyclone translation speed
The translation speed of tropical cyclones has decreased globally by 10% over the past 70 years, compounding the increases in cyclone-related local rainfall that have resulted from anthropogenic warming.
- James P. Kossin
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Letter |
Climatic control of Mississippi River flood hazard amplified by river engineering
A suite of river discharge, tree-ring, sedimentary and climate data shows that the Mississippi’s flood magnitude has risen by about twenty per cent over the past half-century, largely owing to engineering works.
- Samuel E. Munoz
- , Liviu Giosan
- & Jeffrey P. Donnelly
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Photonuclear reactions triggered by lightning discharge
Ground-based observations during a thunderstorm provide conclusive evidence of positrons being produced after lightning, confirming that lightning can trigger photonuclear reactions.
- Teruaki Enoto
- , Yuuki Wada
- & Harufumi Tsuchiya
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Extreme hydrothermal conditions at an active plate-bounding fault
Extreme temperatures and fluid pressures are measured, and their causes modelled, in a borehole into the Alpine Fault, where an earthquake rupture is expected within the next few decades.
- Rupert Sutherland
- , John Townend
- & Martin Zimmer