Morning Update: Hezbollah and Israel’s dangerous divide

Good morning. A wider war with Israel threatens to erupt in Lebanon – more on that below, along with Frank Stronach’s court date and a series of sports finals. But first:

Today’s headlines

• French leftists thwart the far right, edging out Macron’s Ensemble in an unexpected election victory
• Alice Munro’s youngest daughter, Andrea Robin Skinner, speaks out about her stepfather’s sexual abuse
• A massive Russian attack on multiple Ukrainian cities hits a children’s hospital in Kyiv, killing at least 20

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The Globe in Lebanon

A volatile border

For nine months, in the wake of the Hamas-led Oct. 7 attack and Israel’s invasion of Gaza, Hezbollah and Israel have exchanged strikes across Lebanon’s southern border. But now, as Israel says it’s winding down operations in Gaza, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warns a broader battle with Hezbollah could be next.

Already, tensions are rising. In the past week, an Israeli drone strike killed a senior Hezbollah commander, prompting the Lebanese militia to launch more than 200 missiles at targets in Israel. So why isn’t anyone calling this a war yet? “The only reason,” writes The Globe’s foreign correspondent Mark MacKinnon in his report on the conflict, “is because both sides know how much worse it can get.” To explain what brought Israel and Hezbollah here – and what might move them off the brink – MacKinnon spoke with me from Beirut.

You lived in Beirut just before the last war with Israel in 2006. How has the city changed since then?

The country’s infrastructure, which was already wobbly, was badly destroyed in 2006. The electricity grid provides three to six hours a day of power to homes, so everyone’s using generators, which creates a sort of brown haze that hangs over the city. People pay for water to be delivered to their apartment buildings, rather than rely on public services. The port was destroyed in 2020, and its shell is a symbol of everything that’s gone wrong.

What’s the feeling on the ground right now?

It’s a really nervous moment for people, including the up to 75,000 Canadian citizens who live here. When you ask people about the threat of war, it’s obviously right there, and people are considering what to do if and when it breaks out. But I’m sitting in East Beirut right now, and the restaurants are packed; there’s music playing in the background. People are going on with their lives.

There’s also some hope the election of a reformist president in Iran will change the atmosphere in the region and lead to de-escalation.

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There have been fears all year that war could break out between Israel and Hezbollah. What about this moment seems especially fraught?

It’s a very weird conflict right now. Both sides are trying to guess where the other’s red line is. Every time one side escalates a little bit, the other side escalates – so after the assassination of a senior Hezbollah commander, Hezbollah fired more rockets into Israel than the last time that happened, and they creep closer and closer to an all-out war. Benjamin Netanyahu will address the U.S. Congress on July 24, and that’s seen as a key date, where he’ll give a message to – or receive a message from – Washington about what happens now that the war in Gaza seems to be winding down, and how Israel addresses what it calls its northern front.

What does Hezbollah want?

Its attacks began right after the Israeli invasion of Gaza, as an act of solidarity – Hezbollah is an independent actor here but it needs to be seen as supporting the resistance. The official reason it gives is that part of Lebanese territory is occupied, and eventually it wants to quote-unquote liberate Palestine. So if Hezbollah doesn’t act, then why does it exist? Why doesn’t it put down its weapons and join the Lebanese state? That said, obviously it is a proxy of Iran and you can’t see its actions outside of that. This is very much a conflict between Iran and Israel as well.

And what’s motivating Israel?

At the start of this conflict, it evacuated 60,000 citizens from northern Israel. The real political calendar here is that Netanyahu needs to get those people home for the start of the school year in September. If he doesn’t, that’s very damaging to a guy who’s already in a political jam in Israel. And to send them home with the threat of Hezbollah remaining is also difficult – why did they leave their homes for 11 months if nothing changed? So that’s why Israel talks about, as Gaza winds down, moving more forces to the northern front.

What needs to happen to avoid this war?

An all-out war would be terrible for ordinary Lebanese. The electricity system barely functions; the banking system barely functions. The last thing this country needs is a war, so hopefully that is a restraint on Hezbollah. A diplomatic victory for Israel might be Hezbollah moving some of its weapons and fighters north, away from the border. There are 13 points of dispute along the Israel-Lebanon border, and if some of those points could be resolved in Lebanon’s favour, then Hezbollah might be able to say, look, we got a victory out of this, too.

Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly told Canadians in late June to leave Lebanon while commercial flights are still available. What are the contingency plans to evacuate people who remain?

The feeling is that if a war begins, the airport will be the first target, leaving the ferries to Cyprus and Turkey as really the only option out. Lebanon is bordered by Israel to the south and Syria to the north and east, and Canada has no diplomatic relationship with Syria given the ongoing civil conflict. So the plans will be very focused on the ferries.

Back in 2006, when I was here during the war, the Canadian evacuation was quite chaotic. The French and the Americans and everyone had left, and all the Canadians were gathered in the port of Beirut in the sun, waiting for their own evacuation. There was this ferry that appeared on the horizon with a red and white flag, and people started cheering. And I used to live in Moscow, so I recognized before most people that this was the flag of Georgia. It was an embarrassing moment for Canada, that all these other countries – even Georgia – seemed to get their act together faster.

This interview has been edited for length and clarity.

The Shot

‘They mingled and charmed the crowds with curiosities and puzzles.’

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For The Globe’s science reporter Ivan Semeniuk, working at the Ontario Science Centre in the 1980s was a crash course in the business of blowing people’s minds with science. Read more here.

The Week

What we’re following

Today: Billionaire businessman Frank Stronach is scheduled to appear in a Brampton courtroom on 13 charges related to sexual assault.

Tomorrow: After beating Venezuela on penalty kicks, Canada meets Messi and Argentina in the Copa America semi-finals.

Tomorrow: The NATO summit kicks off in Washington, D.C., as Europe’s leaders look to safeguard the military alliance ahead of a possible Trump presidency.

Saturday: The women take the court for their Wimbledon final, while the men play on Sunday.

Sunday: It’s an embarrassment of soccer riches – both the Copa and the Euro 2024 tournaments wrap up.

Apologies: Friday’s newsletter failed to link to Ann Hui’s terrific feature on the longevity movement.