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The Myth of the Rational Market: A History of Risk, Reward, and Delusion on Wall Street Paperback – February 8, 2011


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“Do we really need yet another book about the financial crisis? Yes, we do—because this one is different….A must-read for anyone who wants to understand the mess we’re in.”
—Paul Krugman,
New York Times Book Review

 

“Fox makes business history thrilling.”
St. Louis Post-Dispatch

 

A lively history of ideas, The Myth of the Rational Market by former Time Magazine economics columnist Justin Fox, describes with insight and wit the rise and fall of the world’s most influential investing idea: the efficient markets theory. Both a New York Times bestseller and Notable Book of the Year—longlisted for the Financial Times Business Book of the Year Award and named one of Library Journal Best Business Books of the Year—The Myth of the Rational Market carries readers from the earliest days of Wall Street to the current financial crisis, debunking the long-held myth that the stock market is always right in the process while intelligently exploring the replacement theory of behavioral economics.


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Editorial Reviews

Review

“Do we really need yet another book about the financial crisis? Yes, we do ― because this one is different. Fox’s book is not an idle exercise in intellectual history, which makes it a must-read for anyone who wants to understand the mess we’re in.” — Paul Krugman, New York Times Book Review

“Justin Fox is a truly insightful fellow who can see things with his own eyes―a rare, very rare attribute.” — Nassim Nicholas Taleb, author of The Black Swan

“A fascinating historical narrative.” — Roger Lowenstein, The Washington Post

“This wise and witty book is must reading for anyone who wonders what makes financial markets tick. Even those who have wrestled with this question for years will be glad to have read Fox’s compelling history.” — Peter Bernstein, author of Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk

“His analysis is singularly compelling, and the rare business history that reads like a thriller... A must-read for anyone interested in the markets, our economy or government, this dense but spellbinding work brings modern finance and economics to life.” — Publishers Weekly (starred review)

“A lucid, lively and learned account.” — Barron's

“Fox makes business history thrilling.” — St. Louis Post-Dispatch

“Impressively broad and richly researched.” — Financial Times

“...a rich history of the world’s most seductive investing idea...the book chronicles the rise of rational market theory over the decades and captures the sizzle and pop of the intellectual debate ...” — Bloomberg

“Good wonky fun.” — Barry Ritholz, The Big Picture blog

“An intellectual tour-de-force...” — The Economist

“Superbly accurate and readable... Clearly the result of many years of research and reading,... it is a model of what the popularization of social science can be, but too rarely is, and it will continue to be read when the current crisis is many years behind us.” — American Scientist

“A tough, tasty steak of a book.” — Dan Neil, Los Angeles Times

“A thoughtful, often fascinating, always illuminating history of the idea of market rationality.” — Cory Doctorow, boingboing.net

From the Inside Flap

The financial crisis of 2008 and subsequent Great Recession demolished many cherished beliefs--most significantly, the theory that financial markets always get things right. Justin Fox's The Myth of the Rational Market explains where that idea came from, and where it went wrong. As much an intellectual whodunit as a cultural history of the perils and possibilities of risk, it also brings to life the people and ideas that forged modern finance and investing--from the formative days of Wall Street through the Great Depression and into the financial calamities of today. It's a tale featuring professors who made and lost fortunes, battled fiercely over ideas, beat the house at blackjack, wrote bestselling books, and played major roles on the world stage. It's also a story of free-market capitalism's war with itself.

--Barron's

Product details

  • ASIN ‏ : ‎ 0060599030
  • Publisher ‏ : ‎ Harper Business; Reprint edition (February 8, 2011)
  • Language ‏ : ‎ English
  • Paperback ‏ : ‎ 416 pages
  • ISBN-10 ‏ : ‎ 9780060599034
  • ISBN-13 ‏ : ‎ 978-0060599034
  • Item Weight ‏ : ‎ 11.2 ounces
  • Dimensions ‏ : ‎ 5.31 x 0.94 x 8 inches
  • Customer Reviews:

About the author

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Justin Fox
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Justin Fox is a columnist for Bloomberg Opinion and a contributor to Bloomberg Businessweek.

He was previously editorial director of Harvard Business Review Group, the business and economics columnist at Time magazine, and a writer and editor at Fortune magazine. He is married and has a son, and lives in Manhattan.

Fox's first book, 'The Myth of the Rational Market,' is a history of the rise and fall of the efficient market hypothesis — the influential academic theory that financial markets are nearly perfectly rational and correct. It was the Amazon.com editors' choice as the Best Business Book of 2009 and was a New York Times Notable Book of 2009.

Customer reviews

4.3 out of 5 stars
210 global ratings

Customers say

Customers find the book well-researched with useful references. They also describe the book as well-written, simple, and entertaining. Readers say it's worth reading and the story is well-told.

AI-generated from the text of customer reviews

38 customers mention "Educational value"33 positive5 negative

Customers find the book well organized, with useful references. They also say it provides a fascinating background and history of Wall Street. Readers also say the book provides enlightening reviews of various economic and market theories. They say it's an excellent tool for business students and a candid history of men and money.

"...These questions and many more are examined in this urbane, candid history of men and money...." Read more

"...This book is an excellent tool for business students because it includes the background stories of how stock market principles were crafted to..." Read more

"...His research is impeccable and he highlights all the major players; Black, Fisher, Friedman, Keynes, Modigliani and Buffett, as well as a large..." Read more

"...The Introduction captures the reader's immediate attention, as it sets the stage for the book in relevant context by discussing the recent collapse..." Read more

30 customers mention "Simplicity"23 positive7 negative

Customers find the book well-written, easy to read, and well-structured. They also say the author did a great job compiling and assembling the history.

"...Great read, drills down relentlessly into the annals of time and pressure and personalities and opportunities and Other People's Money, to come up..." Read more

"...It was extremely convenient to have so many topics covered in one book...." Read more

"...An outstanding book and a great read filled with notes for further study for those of us who got curiouser and curiouser......." Read more

"...Fox's book seemed to jump, rather chaotically at times, from one side of the country to the next and from one time to another, when presenting the..." Read more

28 customers mention "Enjoyability"28 positive0 negative

Customers find the book entertaining and useful. They also say it's worth reading.

"...An outstanding book and a great read filled with notes for further study for those of us who got curiouser and curiouser......." Read more

"...It was simple, entertaining and educational. I finally understood a lot of what has gone on in the world of Fannie Maes and Freddie Macs...." Read more

"This book is outstanding!My father was financial VP for a large firm. I am a physicist...." Read more

"...fairly pleasant; it wasn't too boring, in fact at times it was somewhat entertaining, and it didn't seem to require an extensive understanding of..." Read more

8 customers mention "Story"8 positive0 negative

Customers find the story well-told, and say it reads like a good detective story. They also say it provides a complete story of the market.

"...is an excellent tool for business students because it includes the background stories of how stock market principles were crafted to comprehend the..." Read more

"...The man is truly a brilliant writer and a gifted storyteller...." Read more

"...Overall, this book is a decent book. It provides a deep and structured story of Wall Street...." Read more

"...The book does give a rather complete story of the market, but should only be read by intellectuals wanting to further their knowledge of the market." Read more

5 customers mention "Comprehensibility"0 positive5 negative

Customers find the book bogs down quickly, making it hard to follow the chronology of events and theories evolving. They also mention that the book has jarring jumps between time periods within chapters.

"...It became a little frustrating and I don't think I could recommend it to the casual reader...." Read more

"...In addition, the timeframe jumped around without consistency or jumped out of the chronological order...." Read more

"...This can lead to jarring jumps between time periods within chapters and the reader suspects that important topics are being missed...." Read more

"...Especially in the first four chapters it is are hard to follow the chronology of events and theories evolving...." Read more

Top reviews from the United States

Reviewed in the United States on July 9, 2012
Is the financial market truly efficient, or is it simply behavioral? When stocks that seem overpriced stay that way is the judgment of the pit to be trusted? When a CEO makes a killing while his company's stocks take a battering should investors be concerned? And given our industry's ill-fated success at handily transforming poisonous personal loans with the use of tranches into triple-A CDOs, have we really learned anything at all since the collapse of the Dutch tulip bubble in the 1630s?

These questions and many more are examined in this urbane, candid history of men and money. Fox navigates the troubled waters of the Street and the Academy with skill, giving credit where it is due but not hesitating to point out the Emperor's knickers around his royal ankles. The only disappointment to me was the discovery that there is no method of stock valuation for the side of the argument which maintains the irregularity of the market; there is no Black&Scholes for the unbeliever. But maybe that fact is indicative of the truth that, in the end, you really do have to choose between precise ambiguity and vague truth.

And this book whispers an unsettling memento mori into the ear of the aspiring business leader: it doesn't matter which lens you choose, because in the end the view is the same through both of them...

Great read, drills down relentlessly into the annals of time and pressure and personalities and opportunities and Other People's Money, to come up with timeless observations about finance and philosophy.

JV
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Reviewed in the United States on November 30, 2009
In Justin Fox's book The Myth of the Rational Market, he quotes Richard Thaler who once said, "young economists are taught these modern concepts (equations, diagrams, and the like) but rarely go back and read the surroundings text." Thaler went on to argue that, "it is time to stop neglecting the words and time to start updating our equations to include these behavioral factors." This book is an excellent tool for business students because it includes the background stories of how stock market principles were crafted to comprehend the market in a mathematical sense. This background information is not normally included in Finance and Economics classes, and just as Thaler recommended equations incorporate behavior factors, it is important for students and others working in the industry to know what behavioral factors have been addressed when studying and adapting to the market.

The book introduces an extensive list of characters in the aforementioned evolution including Kenneth Arrow, Louis Bachelier, Fisher Black, Warren Buffet, Eugene Fama, Michael Jensen, and Harry Markowitz. All of these characters are linked together to give the reader a full understanding of how one individual's accomplishments are connected to another's, and the impact these associations generated for the market. The principles involved are still used by individual investors and market managers today, and will most likely be the foundation for future students' theories. It was extremely convenient to have so many topics covered in one book.

Since recently purchasing my first a home, I found the background of the Case-Shiller indices particularly interesting. Fox explained that Jeremy Siegel and Robert Shiller met in line waiting for their physicals when they arrived for graduate school at MIT in 1968. After the 1987 crash, Shiller worked with Karl Case to determine if real estate was prone to bubbles. The result of this research is now a comprehensive data series of indicators on home prices in America. As a business student, it is interesting to read cases where chance and networking link to create great rewards in a certain field of individual students. Fox's book is filled with stories of people determining a great idea after a car ride, or at a dinner party, or at a conference, and it makes the history of the market educating and interesting.

Personally, one of the rewards I experienced from reading this book was having a general understanding of key economists, and being able to remember their respective accomplishments. For example, I watched CNBCs special "Warren Buffet and Bill Gates" where they spoke to Columbia graduate students on the state of the U.S. economy. Warren Buffet many times mentioned the lessons he learned from Benjamin Graham. From reading this book, I understood that Ben Graham was Mr. Buffet's mentor and part of his success was based on structuring his investment business as a partnership. In addition, I ascertained that Ben Graham was one of the first to use and write about arbitrage in Magazine of Wall Street. His ability to, "find the same thing selling at different places, buy it at the low price and sell at the high price," can make people very rich. These practices that are now used daily each has its own roots, and Justin Fox's book enables readers to better understand their environment.

The news this past year has highlighted numerous unethical leaders and companies who have gone bankrupt. I enjoyed that the book had a couple of chapters concentrating on what drives CEOs, and how greed for higher salaries and earnings can and cannot affect stock prices. In addition, it detailed how stock prices can be manipulated to give a different perception of a company. I think these concepts and maneuvers are important to study, especially when the end result can create a multitude of negative repercussions. Michael Jensen's model of corporate behavior was explained in this book, including what he believed was missing from his initial model- "integrity and honoring your world." Jensen mentioned that leaders need to honor their promises and commitments, acknowledge failure, and clean up messes. That concept in the book could be applied to assist individuals in various business situations. I understand that many tools are available to better understand the market and make stock prices correctly correlate with businesses' profitability. However, if used without integrity, more harm than good will be done for the stock market, investors, the company, and the economy. Overall, I learned a great deal from Justin Fox's book and would recommend the book be used in MBA classroom settings. I also believe many individuals working in the financial market would enjoy this book, especially the last couple of sections, where many key economists reflect on our current financial situation.
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Reviewed in the United States on November 27, 2010
I never imagined that learning the history of the study of financial markets and the teaching of same in academia would be so important to understanding what was really happening on Wall Street.

My naivete opened the world to a new way of viewing the markets and their behavior.

Author Justin Fox let's it be known that he is a journalist but his humility is just that. The man is truly a brilliant writer and a gifted storyteller.

What do you take away from the book that is largely a 20th century history of the academic minds that fueled our beliefs about the markets?

First is that the struggles that you and I have with just how efficient or not the market is...is something that all the great minds struggle with. Don't worry you won't walk away with the belief that the markets are indeed rational. But you'll sense the arguments that the markets do discount a lot of information is correct. Of course...the there are the exceptions which more than shine in the conclusion that the markets are not rational.

If that analysis isn't crystal it's because the waters are murky even in the minds of those who have studied it and lived it for decades on end.

Second takeaway? Stability breeds instability. Markets that are stable, are trending nicely are preparing the way for a disaster. Now WHEN will that disaster hit? You don't always know that of course but THIS conclusion was a wake up call.

Third? Shiller's study on home prices dating back a century show that adjusted for inflation...housing may not be the great investment waiting to happen again...that you might wish it would be... (My conclusion)

Fourth? Keynes wrote at one point that keeping interest rates artificially low perhaps could keep markets in a perpetual bubble that won't break so why not? (My conclusion to this rather stunning paraphrase? Step out of the way when that explosion occurs...Keynes is wrong.)

There are hundreds of grand nuggets buried within this brilliantly told story of Wall Street being studied and taught at University.

An outstanding book and a great read filled with notes for further study for those of us who got curiouser and curiouser....

Kevin Hogan
Author of:
The 168 Hour Week: Living Life Your Way 24-7
5 people found this helpful
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Top reviews from other countries

Joe Blow
5.0 out of 5 stars Devastation deconstruction of the so-called "Rational" market
Reviewed in Canada on October 20, 2020
Full of sardonic humour, an outstanding candid revelation of how a bunch of mathematicians fooled themselves (and in the process fooled others) into thinking that past data predicted the future. The result was the creation of a ruthless
"Investment advisor" industry that preyed on the unsuspecting masses.
Niels Bohr, Nobel prize winner once said "Making predictions is very difficult, especially when it concerns the future".
Bohr had a grim sense of humour. If you cannot predict the future (and you cannot), then you cannot predict the future with Math. QED.
There is just one omission in this otherwise outstanding book. In the chapter dealing with the 2007-2008 crash, there is no mention of those who did warn about the overheated market and the dangers of a crash. They include Peter Drucker, Anne Pettifor, Steve Keen, Dean Baker, Raghuram Rajan, Peter Schiff and others. One wonders why they were omitted.
One person found this helpful
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Pooranalingam Ravindran
5.0 out of 5 stars Yet for practitioners and students of finance this is an awesome journey about the most defining theory of finance of ...
Reviewed in India on March 4, 2016
Tremendous. Tells the origin of the efficient market hypothesis its, capture of academia and the recent challenge it has faced in the aftermath of various bubbles. The book's cast is an unusual mix of professors mostly hailing from Chicago who put EMH at the centre of finance. But as the theory's armor get its chinks, mostly from a slew of asset bubbles, behavioural psychologists and empirical economists question the legitimacy of EMH itself. Despite its journalistic style, I wonder whether a general public would get much out of this book given the jargons that inevitably (but justifiably) crowd the narrative. Yet for practitioners and students of finance this is an awesome journey about the most defining theory of finance of the past century. A must read.
John Miller
5.0 out of 5 stars Five Stars
Reviewed in the United Kingdom on July 23, 2015
Just proves what i've always beleived not all the crooks are in jail
BOG
2.0 out of 5 stars Troppo prolisso
Reviewed in Italy on September 23, 2013
Buon libro ma a mio avviso troppo prolisso nella descrizione dei fatti e dei legami tra i vari attori del tempo.
Non è molto scorrevole.
Dr. Chrilly Donninger
5.0 out of 5 stars Gut schriebene Geschichte der Mainstream-Ökonomie
Reviewed in Germany on February 10, 2013
Entgegen dem etwas reißerischen Titel ist das Buch nach dem von Tacitus formulierten Motto "sine ira et studio" geschrieben.
"When I set out to write this book, I didn't have a particular ideological axe to grind about efficient markets. Sure, I had my biases (cognitive and otherwise), but I was mainly interested in reporting and telling a story."
Justin Fox ist es besser als Tacitus in den Annalen gelungen diesem Motto tatsächlich treu zu bleiben.
Er schildert die Geschichte, die innere Logik der Mainstream Ökonomie und die Motife der handelnden Personen der letzten 100 Jahre. Der Autor ist - wie er selbst betont - gelernter Journalist und nicht Wissenschafter. Er kann schreiben. Er hat aber auch ausreichendes Fachwissen und kennt aus persönlicher Erfahrung die Branche. Journalisten neigen dazu einen Sachverhalt in Gschichtln aufzulösen und sich selbst in den Mittelpunkt zu stellen. Fox erzählt auch Geschichten, aber sie werden nie zum reinen Selbstzweck. Er hält auch sein Ego angenehm im Hintergrund.
Die herrschende Ökonomie ist die Ökonomie der Herrschenden. Der Autor verlässt dieses Terrain nicht. Er hat auch nicht den Anspruch derartiges zu leisten. Er beschreibt aber dieses abgesteckte Terrain sehr gut. Es war ein Vergnügen dieses Buch zu lesen.
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